AKP Insider Signals 2026 Referendum and Possible 2027 Election

Summary:

Senior AKP figure Şamil Tayyar has claimed that the ruling party is preparing for a constitutional referendum in late 2026, possibly followed by early general elections in 2027. Speaking on pro-government TGRT TV, Tayyar said the plan was contingent on the success of the ongoing peace process and the emergence of a “broad consensus text.” He described the referendum scenario as one the party has “already priced in.”

“Referendum Preparations Underway,” Says Tayyar

In a televised discussion on TGRT Haber, former AKP deputy and party insider Şamil Tayyar said the government is actively preparing for a new constitution referendum as early as the autumn of 2026.

“The AK Party is considering a new constitution referendum toward the end of 2026. I see the preparations taking shape. I’m saying this as information,” Tayyar told viewers.

He added that if the peace process reaches a result and a joint consensus document is produced, the government could proceed with a referendum even if the 400-seat threshold is not achieved in parliament.

“In market terms, the AKP has already ‘priced in’ the referendum possibility once the 360-vote level is surpassed,” Tayyar said.

Timing Scenarios: Late 2026 or Spring 2027

According to Tayyar, the initial target date appears to be the autumn of 2026, but the referendum could also be postponed to the spring of 2027, depending on political circumstances.

He argued that the referendum result could directly shape Turkey’s election calendar, paving the way for snap polls in 2027.

“If the referendum is held in spring 2027 and passes with a strong ‘yes’ vote, I expect early elections in autumn 2027,” he said.
“Alternatively, if the referendum happens in autumn 2026 and produces a favorable outcome, elections could come as early as spring 2027.”

Tayyar emphasized that these were his personal assessments, but that a referendum preparation is indeed underway within the ruling party.

Constitutional Reform Linked to Peace Process

Tayyar’s remarks implicitly link the new constitution agenda to the renewed peace process between the government and Kurdish political actors — a process reportedly being discussed in parallel to the broader “democratic normalization” talks launched in 2025.

He suggested that if a mutual understanding is reached, the AKP could use the constitutional referendum as a unifying project, aiming to consolidate public support before the next national vote.

Analysts view this as part of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long-term strategy to secure a final political legacy — rewriting the constitution to expand presidential powers and reshape governance structures before the next election cycle.

Political Context: Erdoğan Eyes His Next Move

The timing of Tayyar’s comments is notable. With economic pressures mounting, the lira under stress, and opposition momentum sustained by CHP leader Özgür Özel, Erdoğan’s government faces tightening political space.

Some observers believe the ruling party may seek a referendum-driven reset, using a constitutional campaign to rally its base and reframe national debates ahead of 2027.

Others argue that such a move could backfire if the public perceives it as a political survival tactic rather than a genuine reform.

Analysts Divided Over Feasibility

Constitutional experts point out that holding a referendum requires either 400 parliamentary votes (to enact directly) or at least 360 (to take the proposal to a public vote).
The AKP and its ally MHP currently hold around 330 seats, making opposition or independent support essential.

While Tayyar’s statement may reflect internal party optimism, it also signals that the AKP is testing political waters for another constitutional push — the first major one since the 2017 referendum that created Turkey’s executive presidency system.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE:
PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles on our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English-language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel