AK Party Loses Ground in Strongholds as Economic Pressure Mounts

The AK Party, which for years dominated Turkish politics, is facing a significant erosion of voter support, particularly in provinces long considered its strongholds. A recent poll by ORC Research, conducted between June 11–13, reveals a notable drop in vote share across key cities like Bursa, Konya, Kayseri, and Kocaeli—with average losses of six percentage points.

The main opposition party, CHP, meanwhile, is gaining momentum in those same cities, showing a steady rise in support amid rising economic frustration nationwide.

Public Frustration Undermines AK Party Amid Crisis

As Turkey navigates a deepening economic downturn, widespread poverty, and growing public dissatisfaction, support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) continues to decline. Once labeled as “fortresses” of the party, major urban centers now show signs of political realignment.

The latest “If the Election Were This Sunday” survey, conducted by ORC across Bursa, Kocaeli, Konya, Kayseri, Tekirdağ, and Eskişehir, highlights that the AK Party’s support has shrunk by approximately 6 percentage points in each city.

Province by Province: AK Party’s Waning Support

In Bursa, where 2,490 people were surveyed, the AK Party’s vote share dropped from 39.1% in May 2023 to 33.1%. A similar trend is seen in Kocaeli, with support sliding from 39.7% to 33.5% among 1,970 respondents.

In Konya, a city where the CHP has recently held large rallies, the AK Party’s vote share fell from 47.95% to 40.8%, according to input from 2,320 participants. Likewise, Kayseri recorded a drop from 40.72% to 34.5% with 2,150 respondents.

The decline extends to western Turkey as well. In Tekirdağ, AK Party support fell from 30.73% to 25% in a sample of 1,850 people. In Eskişehir, 1,700 participants showed a shift from 33.15% to 27%.

CHP Surges in Traditional AK Party Zones

Perhaps the most eye-catching takeaway is the CHP’s upward trajectory—with an average 6-point increase in support across all surveyed provinces. The highly attended rallies in provinces like Yozgat, Konya, and Bartın are cited as drivers of this surge, signaling a growing resonance with voters.

Ruling Party’s Strategic Messaging Falls Flat

Despite pushing constitutional reform and Middle East-focused foreign policy rhetoric, the ruling party appears unable to win back voter trust. Experts suggest that the failure to deliver concrete economic solutions and address everyday concerns is costing the AK Party its longstanding grip.

“The public wants answers to kitchen-table issues, not grand political visions,” noted one analyst.

The findings paint a clear picture: as Turkey’s economic woes deepen, the AK Party is struggling to maintain loyalty even in its most loyal regions. Meanwhile, the CHP is capitalizing on this shift by strengthening its presence and outreach where it once lagged.