Polls show Erdoğan’s foreign-policy wins fail to shift voter intentions

New surveys indicate that high-profile foreign policy moves — including President Erdoğan’s meeting with Donald Trump and Turkey’s leverage at the Gaza peace table — have not translated into additional support for the AKP.

Two of Turkey’s most reliable polling firms — KONDA and PanoramaTR — released October polling data that provides the first measure of whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent diplomatic headline wins influenced public support.

The results suggest the answer is no.

Despite intense pro-government media coverage portraying Erdoğan as a global statesman reshaping the Middle East, voters appear more focused on domestic issues such as the economy, corruption allegations against opposition mayors, and declining trust in state institutions.

Foreign policy headlines fail to boost AKP vote

In October, President Erdoğan met with U.S. President Donald Trump and positioned Turkey at the Gaza ceasefire negotiating table — developments described by pro-government outlets as “historic success.”

But data from PanoramaTR (fieldwork: Oct. 13–24) shows:

• CHP: 35.8%

• AKP: 34.4%

Compared to September:

• CHP fell only 0.8 points

• AKP increased 0.1 points

PanoramaTR concludes that the foreign policy momentum did not translate into increased AKP votes.

KONDA, whose October results are still being finalized, says the race is extremely tight — sometimes showing AKP ahead by a fraction of a point.

Government propaganda campaign produces polarization, not persuasion

Pro-government media framed Erdoğan as the “leader of the century,” but PanoramaTR and KONDA data show minimal impact on undecided voters.

The key metric: presidential job approval.

• Voters rating Erdoğan as “successful” rose from 38% to 39%

• Those rating him “unsuccessful” rose more sharply, from 51.1% to 52.9%

Instead of winning new support, the messaging deepened polarization.

PanoramaTR Director Osman Sert:
“For the past eight months — except June — CHP has consistently polled higher than AKP.”

Opposition investigations backfire on government narrative

While the government attempted to frame foreign policy as success, domestic politics dominated voter perceptions.

Two major political controversies hit in the same month:

1. A corruption investigation request targeting Mansur Yavaş, Mayor of Ankara.

2. A “espionage accusation” targeting Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mayor of Istanbul.

The polling shows that voters did not believe these accusations.

• Those who say the cases are “politically motivated” rose from 57.1% in July → 62.1% in October

• Those who say the cases are “legal” dropped to 28.1%

Regarding Mansur Yavaş:

• 68.8% say “He did not commit corruption.”
  (up sharply from 58% one month earlier)

The more aggressively pro-government media pushes these claims, the more skeptical voters become.

Government’s performance scorecard: weak on economy, stronger on security

PanoramaTR also asked respondents to grade government performance (0–10).

• Overall government score: 3.8 / 10 (weak)

• Highest scores:

  • Counterterrorism: 5.1

  • Healthcare: 5.0

  • Foreign policy: 4.7

• Lowest scores:

  • Education: 2.7

  • Economy: 2.4

  • Justice system: 2.4

Economic dissatisfaction remains the primary voting driver.

National polling average confirms CHP lead

A separate poll aggregation by MD Reports (13 research firms):

• CHP: 32.2%

• AKP: 31.3%

• DEM Party: 9.1%

• MHP: 7.8%

• IYI Party: 5.7%

• Zafer Party: 4.5%

The data confirms an emerging trend:
The CHP leads consistently, and the AKP is losing its dominance.

Conclusion

• Erdoğan’s foreign policy achievements did not produce meaningful electoral gains.

• Aggressive media campaigning increased polarization, not support.

• Opposition mayors targeted by investigations gained sympathy.

• The election landscape is being driven not by geopolitics — but by economic frustration and declining trust in institutions.

PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles may not represent the editorial board’s views.

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