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2026 Outlook: Tactical Positioning, AI Infrastructure, and Select Opportunities in EM and Turkey

strategy 2026

By Yapi Kredi Invest Chief Strategist Murat Berk. Translate to English by ChatGPT

Global markets are heading into 2026 with a cautious but constructive tone, as investors shift from pure technology plays toward the physical infrastructure needed to sustain the AI boom. Copper, power-grid upgrades, and renewable energy emerge as key beneficiaries, while global credit markets — especially private credit — warrant close monitoring for early signs of stress.

As the global cycle matures and geopolitical risks intensify, analysts expect 2026 to offer selective upside rather than broad, index-level gains. For Turkey and the broader EM complex, anchored inflation paths, lower volatility and attractive valuations may continue to support returns — but with a narrowing margin for error.

Author Murat Berk

AI Infrastructure, Copper and Energy Transition Take Center Stage

The dominant theme heading into 2026 is a pivot away from pure-tech momentum toward the physical backbone of AI:

  • Copper, driven by electrification demand

  • Grid infrastructure upgrades

  • Renewable energy investment

These segments stand to gain from the surge in data-center construction and the global race to scale energy capacity to accommodate AI-linked consumption.

Meanwhile, private credit remains a focal point. Should cracks emerge, analysts argue that high-yield public markets will likely deliver the first warning signs.

Additional structural forces also shape the outlook:

  • A deepening China–rest of the world geopolitical split,

  • Rising defense spending,

  • And the potential return of financial repression in developed economies.

Constructive View on Global Equities — With Selective EM and Turkey Exposure

The outlook remains cautiously positive for global equities, EM markets and Turkish assets — particularly local currency instruments and short-duration TL fixed income, supported by carry dynamics and declining inflation volatility.

By early 2026, Turkey’s market picture could also benefit from:

  • A continued CDS compression,

  • Improved sovereign credit spreads,

  • Still-low foreign ownership,

  • And warming diplomatic ties with Western partners.

Short-term support is expected from a favorable global risk backdrop, solid fundamentals, and subdued volatility.

Short-Term Anchoring, Long-Term Risks

For the next 2–3 months, EM assets — including Turkey — are anchored by benign global macro conditions.
But spreads have already tightened meaningfully since early 2028 levels, reducing the buffer against shocks.

The biggest global risk:
A sharp rise in core rates, which could pressure EM flows and reverse year-to-date gains.

Turkey: After a Difficult 2025, Opportunities May Re-Open

2025 was one of the hardest years for Turkey’s equity investors.
USD-denominated returns lagged, and small-cap pockets unexpectedly outperformed — partly reflecting historically low foreign participation.

Still, analysts expect this to shift in 2026, as Turkey’s macro base remains resilient and valuations remain compelling.

Potential headwinds include:

  • Geopolitical uncertainties,

  • Questions around AI-driven profitability and accounting practices,

  • And a maturing U.S. cycle.

Turkey’s risk profile intensifies later in the easing cycle, particularly if inflation proves stickier than expected.

2026: A Year of Tactical Alpha

The consensus: 2026 will not be a purely directional year, but one marked by rotational opportunities.
Value and relative-value strategies gain importance as volatility spikes may periodically erase carry gains.

Selective stock opportunities will arise where markets underprice fundamentals.

A tactical approach — active rotation rather than static portfolios — becomes increasingly vital.

Macro Baseline: Softer Inflation, Stronger Growth

Analysts expect 2026 to deliver:

  • Lower inflation,

  • Modestly stronger domestic growth,

  • And a stable fiscal and external balance profile comparable to 2025.

Updated macro forecasts will be published in mid-January as part of the 2026 Equity Strategy Outlook, but no major negative revisions are anticipated.

Global Equities: Rallying Into 2026, But Limited S&P 500 Upside

The constructive call remains intact for the coming months, though breaking above S&P 500 at 7200 is viewed as difficult.
Strategists generally prefer:

  • Emerging markets over developed markets,

  • China and Europe over the U.S.

A “short opportunity window” is expected before more frequent pullbacks create tactical entry points.

Fixed Income: Neutral to Cautious

Developed-market bonds remain a neutral/negative call, while EM sovereign hard-currency instruments are also viewed neutrally.
Yield-curve steepening could reintroduce attractive opportunities.

A sharp rise in global yields remains one of the highest-impact risks.

Currencies: TL Favored in EM; No Strong View in G7

Among EM currencies, the Turkish Lira remains preferred.
G7 currencies are expected to trade range-bound.

A weak USD has supported gold, commodities and risk assets; strategists expect the soft-USD backdrop to continue — though an unexpected reversal could reshape 2026 dynamics.

Gold and Silver: A Multi-Year Bull Market

Analysts maintain a multi-year bullish stance on gold and silver despite mining stocks’ persistent underperformance.

After the sharp rise into year-end, some caution is warranted.
But structurally:

  • Gold to exceed $4,000 in 2025,

  • And approach $5,000 in 2026.

A prolonged consolidation similar to 2025’s mid-year pause is possible, but dips remain long-term buying opportunities.

Energy: Neutral, With Tactical Upside for Oil

Oil remains a neutral call, yet even a mild tactical rally could lift leading global energy equities by 20% or more.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles may not represent the editorial board’s stance.

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