2026 Minimum Wage Talks Begin as Inflation Erodes Pay

With rising inflation steadily eroding household purchasing power, millions of Turkish workers are turning their hopes to the 2026 minimum wage increase. After no mid-year raise was granted in 2025, attention now shifts to December’s wage talks, where labor unions, employers, and the government will decide next year’s base salary.

Tripartite Council to Convene Again

The Ministry of Labor and Social Security has reconvened the Tripartite Consultation Board, which last met on October 9 to discuss expanding unionization. Tomorrow’s session will also address the future of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which some labor unions have chosen to boycott over fairness concerns.

As in previous years, the Commission — composed of five representatives each from labor, employers, and the government — will begin formal deliberations in December to set the new 2026 minimum wage.

Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Forecast 20–25% Increase

Ahead of negotiations, global financial institutions Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan released their initial forecasts, projecting a 20–25% rise in Türkiye’s minimum wage for 2026.

If realized:

• A 20% increase would lift the net minimum wage to ₺26,524,

• A 25% raise would push it to ₺27,630, up from the current ₺22,104.

Morgan Stanley, which accurately predicted the 30% hike for 2025, also shared macroeconomic projections, expecting inflation to ease to 30% by end-2025 and 21% by end-2026.

Minimum Wage Still Below Hunger Line

However, analysts note that these projected increases barely match the cost of living. According to the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Türk-İş), the hunger line — the minimum monthly cost of food for a family of four — reached ₺27,970 in September 2025.
That means even a 25% wage hike would still fall short of basic nutritional expenses.

The poverty line, which includes housing, transport, and other essential costs, has surged to ₺91,109 per month, underscoring the vast gap between wages and living costs.

Labor Unions Boycott the Wage Commission

The upcoming wage talks may proceed without the participation of Türkiye’s two largest labor confederations, as both have announced boycotts over structural unfairness.
Türk-İş Chairman Ergün Atalay and Hak-İş President Mahmut Arslan stated they will not join the Commission, arguing that current voting mechanisms favor government and employer interests.

Under the existing system, the Commission can finalize a decision with a simple majority of at least 10 members present. In the event of a tie, the side supported by the chair — typically a government appointee — prevails, effectively limiting labor’s bargaining leverage.

Inflation, Cost of Living, and Economic Outlook

Economists warn that even a moderate wage increase may not restore purchasing power if inflation remains high. While the Central Bank’s tightening measures aim to cool demand, the delayed effects of interest rate cuts and currency volatility could keep prices elevated through early 2026.

Meanwhile, global institutions expect Türkiye’s disinflation path to continue but caution that real incomes will lag behind inflation until wage policies are indexed more closely to living costs.

For millions of workers, the December wage decision will determine not just next year’s paychecks but their ability to meet basic needs in an economy still battling persistent price pressures.