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Turkish Election Prediction: Kilicdaroglu Beats Erdogan, Parliament Goes to Opposition Alliance

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Turkish Election Prediction: Kilicdaroglu Beats Erdogan, Parliament Goes to Opposition Alliance

  • These are final predictions for Turkey’s presidential  and parliamentary elections by Real Turkey staff.

 

  • The predictions are based on latest poll averages, as well as majority expert opinion.

 

  • Kemal Kilicdaroglu is set to win the presidency in the run-off.

 

  • AKP-MHP remains the largest bloc in the Grand Assembly, but opposition alliances Nation and Green Left will have a majority.

 

  • There are 4 factors which can upset these predictions.

 

  • The groundswell-shy voter theory.

 

  • Erdogan’s unpredictable health.

 

  • Currency shock.

 

  • Foul play – vote heist.

 

  • Election process may last through May.

 

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