Turkey Must Hike Rates After Elections. Who Will Get Spanked Bad?

Turkey must hike rates after elections. Who will get spanked bad?

• Turkish inflation is running at a rate of 50%, with a higher pace to ensue after earthquake, massive porkbarreling. CBRT policy rate is only 8.5%. What is wrong with this picture?

• There is a consensus among experts and investors massive rate hikes are inevitable.

• Kilicdaroglu government will “normalize” monetary policy immediately. Erdogan will be FORCED to do so in the winter months.

• How much will rate have to go up?

• Who will get hurt?

• Are banks resilient to rate hikes?

• Budget deficits will widen, bankruptcies will increase, indebted household will suffer.

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