OPINION: Erdogan stages  U-turn on refugees

After merrily taking in up to 4 mn Syrian refugees and turning a blind eye to Afghans pouring over the border with Iran, Turkey’s president Erdogan staged a swift U-turn on this week.  According to statements by him and AKP spokesperson Omer Celik, the new immigration policy is “cup full”, i.e. no new refugees will be admitted. Erdogan added that new processing centers for illegal migrants with a total capacity of 16K being erected, to return them to their home country.

 

The Turkish president on Sunday talked with the EU Council president over the phone, saying Turkey cannot handle an additional migration wave.

 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Charles Michel discussed regional issues, especially the developments in Afghanistan and the issue of migration, as well as steps to enhance Turkey-EU relations, according to a statement by Turkey’s Communications Directorate.

 

Erdogan told Michel that he wants a smooth transition in Afghanistan, adding that if the necessary measures are not taken, the pressure on immigration from Afghanistan will increase even more, which will pose a serious challenge for all countries.

 

The EU should help the Afghan people in Afghanistan and in neighboring countries, especially Iran, he emphasized.

 

Erdogan said Turkey is already home to at least 5 million refugees, stressing that the country cannot handle an additional “migration burden.”

 

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Turkey does not have the capacity to host more migrants and refugees and the country is not a migrant camp, ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) spokesperson Omer Çelik said Monday, as hundreds of thousands of Afghans try to flee the country after the Taliban took over.

 

Speaking after a party meeting in the capital Ankara, Çelik called some remarks by foreign leaders to provide financial aid to Turkey in return for accepting migrants “disrespectful.”

 

 

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“Turkey does not have the capacity to accept one more refugee,” Çelik said, adding that the country has control over its borders and all comments suggesting to pile up migrants here are “null and void.”

 

Erdogan has always considered Moslem refugees a welcome addition to Turkey, hoping to bolster his Sunni Muslim global leader credentials. Other AKP front-benchers recently claimed that Turkish industry would collapse rapidly, if Syrian and Afghan refugees were repatriated.

 

However, a very effective and coordinated campaign by the opposition bloc, the Nation Alliance, refugees have become a burden on AKP‘s voter support.   Poll after poll finds that up to 80% of participants want refugees to be sent back.

 

These include a significant minority of AKP and MHP voters, suggesting that after the miserable performance of the economy, the refugee policy could become an obstacle to Erdogan and AKP wining the next elections.

 

While the new “cup full” policy may prevent new refugee waves, the damage is already done.   On 13 August, Turks and Syrian clashed in the pro-AKP borough of Altindag, with scores of Syrian residences and shops being attacked.

 

A new collective wage agreement with state blue-collar workers, granting them a 27% wage hike is likely to be emulated in the private sector, pushing up the cost of hiring Turkish nationals. For smaller companies operating in informal sector and suffering from very low profit margins, refugees are the better source of labor, which fact is almost certain to exacerbate social tensions between Turkish citizens and migrants.

 

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.