Türkiye’s Peace Process Stalls as Disarmament Verification Lags

Efforts to advance Türkiye’s so-called “Terror-Free” initiative have stalled due to the lack of verifiable disarmament by the PKK, delaying planned legal reforms. Government sources say concrete steps on the ground remain insufficient, while conflicting political statements highlight growing tensions over the pace and credibility of the process.

Legal Phase Delayed Over Lack of Verified Disarmament

Türkiye’s ongoing İmralı process has yet to transition into its second phase, as authorities cite the absence of confirmed disarmament by the PKK as a key obstacle.

According to government-aligned sources, no legal steps can be initiated without clear, verified evidence that the group has laid down its arms. While earlier expectations pointed to progress following the Ramadan holiday, developments on the ground have failed to meet those timelines.

Security officials indicate that symbolic gestures—such as previously reported “weapons destruction” displays—have not been followed by systematic or verifiable disarmament.

Limited Developments on the Ground

Officials familiar with the situation report that only limited changes have occurred in PKK-controlled areas. Of approximately 30 identified cave sites stretching from Türkiye to northern Iraq, only seven are said to have been vacated.

Government insiders argue that the continued presence of armed elements makes legal reforms premature.

“As long as armed groups remain active and the threat persists, legal steps cannot be taken,” one ruling party source said. “Legislation alone is not a solution—implementation on the ground is essential.”

This assessment has effectively frozen progress on drafting and introducing new legislation tied to the process.

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No Clear Timeline for Legal Reforms

Due to the uncertainty surrounding disarmament verification, officials have avoided committing to a firm timeline for legal changes.

However, internal discussions within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suggest that a preliminary legal framework could be considered before July—provided that the necessary conditions are met.

The proposed legislation, often referred to as a “framework law,” is expected to outline:

• Procedures for formalizing the PKK’s dissolution
• Legal status of senior members
• Judicial jurisdiction for related cases

Among the options under discussion is assigning authority to Ankara-based courts, including the possible designation of special courts.

Intelligence Report Seen as निर्णτικός Factor

A report from the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) is expected to play a decisive role in determining the next steps.

According to political sources, if disarmament can be verified through intelligence and international channels, draft legislation could be fast-tracked to parliament.

Until then, the government appears to be prioritizing security considerations over political or legal momentum.

Diverging Political Messaging

Public statements from senior officials underscore differing interpretations of the process.

AKP spokesperson Ömer Çelik emphasized that the ultimate goal remains the “complete dismantling” of the PKK, noting that the disarmament phase is not yet complete.

“There has been a symbolic act of weapons destruction, but this must continue systematically,” Çelik said, adding that legal reforms would only follow once the process is fully verified.

Similarly, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş described the “critical threshold” as the total elimination of security risks, reinforcing the government’s cautious approach.

Opposition Pushback

The pro-Kurdish DEM Party responded sharply to these statements, arguing that the PKK has already declared its dissolution.

Party spokesperson Ayşegül Doğan criticized the government’s stance, saying:

“The organization has dissolved itself. It seems Mr. Çelik is not aware. Despite entering a new phase, we see the same rhetoric. This undermines trust.”

Doğan called on political institutions, the security bureaucracy, and parliament to take responsibility and advance the process.

Öcalan Reportedly Urges Acceleration

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, has expressed frustration over the slow pace of developments.

According to claims cited in Turkish media, Öcalan has urged the organization’s leadership in Kandil to accelerate disarmament steps, signaling internal pressure to move the process forward.

Outlook: Uncertainty Persists

Despite ongoing preparations for a legal framework, Türkiye’s “Terror-Free” initiative remains in a holding pattern.

Key uncertainties include:

• Whether disarmament can be independently verified
• The timing and scope of legal reforms
• Political consensus across parties

Until these issues are resolved, the process is likely to remain stalled, with both security concerns and political disagreements shaping its trajectory.

HalkTV,  Cumhuriyet