Polls Reveal Deep Polarization in Türkiye Over İmamoğlu Case, Says Bekir Ağırdır

Public opinion in Türkiye remains sharply divided over the detention and trial of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, with a significant portion of society viewing the process as politically motivated. New survey data analyzed by pollster Bekir Ağırdır also point to a broader erosion of trust in the justice system and growing uncertainty about democratic institutions.

Author Bekir Agirdir

Polarization Shapes Perception of İmamoğlu Case

The arrest and prosecution of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has become more than a legal process, evolving into a key test of how political events are interpreted across Türkiye’s deeply polarized society.

According to findings from the Data Institute’s March 2026 survey, public opinion is fragmented, with no single dominant narrative.

When asked how they evaluate İmamoğlu’s detention:

• 52% described it as “government pressure on the opposition”
• 22% said it reflects action against wrongdoing
• 19% believe the judiciary is acting independently
• 9% see it as opposition-driven victimhood

On whether the process is legal or political:

• 48% say it is a political intervention
• 33% consider it a legal process
• The remainder are undecided

The results highlight a divided perception landscape, where political affiliation strongly shapes how events are interpreted.

Public Trust in Justice System Weakening

The findings suggest that the issue extends beyond a single case, reflecting a broader crisis of confidence in Türkiye’s judicial system.

Key indicators include:

• 66% believe the justice system has deteriorated compared to the past
• Only 19% think it has improved
• Just 14% believe justice operates equally for everyone

Meanwhile:

• 31% say the system favors those close to the government
• 29% believe it benefits those with power and resources

A majority also doubts the fairness of ongoing investigations:

• 58% believe probes into opposition municipalities will not be conducted fairly
• Only 23% expect impartial proceedings

These findings point to a structural trust deficit, where legal processes are increasingly viewed through the lens of power dynamics rather than rule of law.

Poll Shows Deep Public Dissatisfaction With Türkiye’s Economic Management

“Grey Zone” Voters Remain Decisive

Despite strong polarization, a notable 18–25% segment of respondents remains undecided on key questions, including corruption allegations and legal interpretations.

For example:

• 44% find corruption claims against İmamoğlu unconvincing
• 34% find them credible
• 23% remain unsure

Similarly, on the cancellation of his university diploma:

• 51% say the decision was wrong
• 26% support it
• 23% are undecided

Analysts view this “grey zone” as politically significant, representing a group open to persuasion in future developments.

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Freedom of Expression and Electoral Trust Under Strain

The survey also reveals growing concerns about democratic conditions:

• Nearly 70% say they cannot freely express their views
• Only 11% feel completely free to speak openly

Confidence in elections remains intact but weakened:

• 23% see elections as fully effective
• 40% say they are partially effective
• 36% consider them ineffective

This suggests that while electoral legitimacy persists, it is no longer unquestioned.

Demand for Change, but Direction Unclear

Public dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory is widespread:

• About 65% are unhappy with Türkiye’s direction
• 49% support early elections
• 26% oppose them

However, analysts note that while demand for change is strong, there is no clear consensus on how it should occur.

Local Governance and Rule of Law Expectations

The survey also highlights public attitudes toward local governance:

• 53% say elected mayors should only be removed by a final court ruling
• Only 14% support trustee (kayyum) appointments
• 76% favor resolving disputes through elections

These findings indicate continued public commitment to democratic representation, even amid declining institutional trust.

Ağırdır: Justice Perceived Through Power, Not Law

According to political analyst Bekir Ağırdır, the data reflect a deeper transformation in how society interprets both politics and justice.

Rather than evaluating events through legal norms, large segments of the population increasingly interpret them through political identity and power relations.

This dynamic reinforces polarization, making consensus more difficult and turning legal processes into contested political narratives.

Who Is Bekir Ağırdır? (Short Bio)

Bekir Ağırdır is one of Türkiye’s leading public opinion researchers and political analysts. He served for many years as the general manager of KONDA Research, a prominent polling company, and is widely known for his work on voter behavior, social trends, and political polarization in Türkiye. Ağırdır regularly contributes analysis on how societal shifts shape political outcomes.

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