“Less U.S., More Türkiye”: Israeli Analysis Points to Shifting Middle East Power Balance

A new analysis published by Israeli daily Haaretz argues that the ongoing Iran war is accelerating a strategic shift in the Middle East, with regional powers—particularly Türkiye—gaining influence as Gulf states reconsider their long-standing dependence on the United States for security.

Gulf States Reassessing Security Dependence

As the war between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran intensifies, attention has largely focused on military developments. However, according to Israeli analyst Elad Giladi of the University of Haifa, a deeper transformation is unfolding behind the scenes.

Giladi notes that Gulf countries are actively discussing a new regional security architecture, one that would:

• Reduce reliance on the United States
• Increase cooperation among regional actors
• Diversify security partnerships

These discussions are reportedly taking place through closed-door diplomatic channels in Riyadh, signaling a strategic recalibration rather than a temporary adjustment.

Türkiye Emerging as a Central Actor

A key takeaway from the analysis is Türkiye’s rising influence in this evolving landscape.

Giladi highlights that:

Türkiye’s role is not only “important” but increasingly decisive in shaping the region’s future.

Several factors underpin Ankara’s growing weight:

• Improved relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE after years of tension
• Expanding security cooperation with regional actors, including Egypt and Pakistan
• A strong defense industry and operational military capacity
• Increasing diplomatic engagement across the Middle East

According to the analysis, Türkiye is now seen by Gulf states as a credible and capable partner in regional security matters.

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Strategic Shift: From U.S. Dependence to Multipolar Security

The emerging framework is not about replacing the United States outright, but rather about diversifying security sources.

Giladi suggests that Gulf countries are adopting a more pragmatic approach:

• The U.S. remains an important actor
• But reliance on a single security provider is no longer seen as sufficient

In this context, Türkiye stands out alongside:

• Pakistan (strategic capabilities)
• Egypt (military depth)
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE (financial power)

Together, these actors could form the backbone of a more regionally anchored security system.

“The Beginning of a New Era”

One of the most striking conclusions of the analysis is the prediction of a post-war order defined by:

👉 “Less U.S., more Türkiye”

Giladi argues that:

• The current war is accelerating structural geopolitical change
• Regional actors will assume greater responsibility for security
• Türkiye’s influence will expand both during and after the conflict

He adds that Ankara could play a central role not only in managing current dynamics but also in shaping the post-war order.

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War as a Catalyst for Structural Change

The analysis concludes that the Iran war is not just a military confrontation but a turning point in regional geopolitics.

Key implications include:

• A gradual shift toward multipolar regional security
• Increased autonomy for Middle Eastern powers
• A more visible and assertive role for Türkiye

Conclusion

While the United States remains a dominant global power, its relative influence in the Middle East may be evolving. According to Israeli analysis, the region is entering a new phase where local actors—led increasingly by Türkiye—play a more decisive role in shaping security and political outcomes.