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Is Türkiye Heading Toward By-Elections? Opposition Gambit Triggers Strategic Debate in Ankara

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A bold move by the main opposition CHP to force by-elections through mass resignations has reignited debate over early elections in Türkiye. While the ruling AKP–MHP bloc can block the plan procedurally, the political implications are far more complex, with analysts divided on whether the opposition’s strategy could reshape the electoral timeline.

CHP’s High-Stakes Move: Forcing By-Elections

Türkiye’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has escalated political tensions by proposing that 22 of its MPs resign, potentially triggering by-elections in up to 30 parliamentary seats.

Under Article 78 of the Constitution, if parliamentary vacancies reach a certain threshold, by-elections must be held within three months.

The CHP’s calculation is clear:

  • Concentrate resignations in stronghold districts
  • Win by-elections decisively
  • Use momentum to force early general elections

However, there is a key procedural hurdle:

Resignations must be approved by a parliamentary vote, where the AKP–MHP majority can reject them.

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A Political Trap for Erdogan?

Even if the resignations are blocked, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel may still achieve a political win.

The strategy doubles as a public relations maneuver, aiming to portray President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as:

  • Avoiding elections
  • Reluctant to face voters

This creates a dilemma for the government:

  • Approve resignations and risk losing by-elections
  • Reject resignations and appear politically defensive

Fehmi Koru: Could AKP Flip the Script?

Veteran columnist Fehmi Koru suggests the ruling party is already weighing its options.

Following a high-level AKP meeting, party spokesperson Omer Celik said that CHP would face another heavy defeat if elections were held.

Koru interprets this as a sign that:

Early election scenarios are being actively discussed within AKP leadership.

He outlines a possible counter-strategy:

  • Call early elections preemptively, rather than waiting for CHP’s move
  • Use current conditions such as regional war, cost-of-living pressures, and foreign policy dynamics to shape the narrative

Koru also notes:

  • The ongoing “terror-free Türkiye” process could be presented as a success
  • Many CHP municipal leaders are currently facing legal pressure, weakening the opposition

His conclusion:

AKP could respond with a bold “challenge accepted” approach.

CHP Angles for By-Elections, Signals Possible Resignation of 30 MPs

Ibrahim Kiras: “Too Early” — or Already Late?

Political analyst Ibrahim Kiras offers a more nuanced view.

He sees CHP’s move primarily as a strategy to keep political momentum alive.

Support from other opposition parties has been mixed:

  • Broad backing from opposition
  • DEM Party prioritizing the Kurdish issue over elections

This fragmentation may weaken the opposition’s ability to force early elections.

A Compressed Political Timeline

Although only three years have passed since the last general election, Kiras argues:

Those three years have felt like thirty.

Key developments since 2023 include:

  • AKP’s local election defeat in March 2024
  • Failed attempts at political normalization between Erdogan and CHP
  • Rising tensions within the ruling alliance, particularly with MHP leader Devlet Bahceli
  • Intensifying legal pressure on opposition figures, including the imprisonment of Ekrem Imamoglu
  • Renewed geopolitical tension due to regional conflict

War Factor: A Wild Card

The emergence of a regional war adds another dimension:

  • Historically, crises can trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect
  • Some analysts suggest this could boost AKP support temporarily

This raises a critical question:

Could the government opt for a snap election during wartime conditions?

Lessons from 2018

Türkiye’s last early election in 2018 offers a precedent:

  • Official rhetoric initially rejected early elections
  • Ultimately, the decision was announced by MHP leader Bahceli
  • The election capitalized on:
    • Post-coup consolidation
    • Military operations in Syria
    • Favorable political momentum

What Happens Next?

The current situation presents three possible scenarios:

1. CHP succeeds

  • By-elections held
  • Opposition gains momentum
  • Pressure builds for early elections

2. AKP blocks resignations

  • No by-elections
  • CHP claims moral victory

3. AKP calls early elections itself

  • Seizes initiative
  • Frames the narrative on its own terms

Bottom Line

Türkiye is not yet officially heading toward elections—but the political system is clearly entering an early-election debate phase.

The key variable is no longer whether elections will happen early, but:

Who will control the timing—and the narrative.

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