Export Demand Index in Turkey Drops in February 2026

The latest data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) reveals a cooling period for the nation’s trade engine. In February 2026, the Export Demand Index in Turkey fell by 0.9% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, settling at 99.9. This dip marks a significant shift as the index slid below its long-term historical average, signaling a tightening in global appetite for Turkish goods despite localized improvements in industrial production.

Structural Pressures Weighing on the Export Demand Index in Turkey

According to the TİM report, the decline in the Export Demand Index in Turkey was driven by a complex mix of macroeconomic factors. While consumer confidence and industrial output showed signs of recovery, these gains were offset by rising concerns over unemployment, labor market security, and persistent inflationary pressures. These elements collectively dampened the demand forecast, creating a challenging environment for manufacturers looking to scale their international reach.

In contrast, the Market Resilience Index showed a slight upward trajectory, rising 0.4% monthly and 0.8% annually to reach 99.8. This resilience is attributed to a marginal easing of global geopolitical risks and to overall market stability beginning to align more closely with long-term averages. Essentially, while the immediate “thirst” for imports has slowed, the underlying strength of Turkey’s core export markets remains relatively stable.

Sectoral and Global Performance: Germany vs. The United States

The Export Demand Index in Turkey varied wildly across different industries in February. The Ship, Yacht, and Services sector took the hardest hit, experiencing a sharp 8.8% drop in demand and a 3.6% decline in market resilience. Conversely, the Carpet industry emerged as a rare bright spot, seeing a 0.5% increase in demand and a robust 2.1% jump in market resilience, suggesting a shift in consumer spending habits toward home goods.

On the global stage, the data highlights a divergence between Turkey’s top trading partners:

• United States: Faced a 1.0% decrease in export demand and a 0.9% drop in market resilience.

• Germany: Showed resilience with a 1.4% increase in demand and a 0.6% rise in the resilience index.

These indices serve as a critical barometer for the Turkish economy, incorporating diverse metrics such as social and political indicators, industrial sentiment, and employment data to chart the future of Turkey’s global trade footprint.