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Turkey’s Contested Homefront: War Next Door, Divisions Within

divided society

By Selim Koru

As the U.S.–Israel war with Iran enters its fourth week, the conflict is forcing Türkiye into an uncomfortable moment of self-reflection. While the country remains more cohesive than Iran, growing political polarization and the jailing of opposition figures risk weakening internal unity at a time of rising geopolitical danger.

A War That Hits Close to Home

The ongoing war in Iran is being closely watched in Türkiye—not just as a regional crisis, but as a mirror.

Many Turks are asking:

  • What would happen if Türkiye faced a similar threat?
  • Would the country’s political system hold under pressure?

The war has highlighted a key lesson:

👉 A government that loses public trust becomes fragile in times of crisis

The contrast between Iran and Israel offers two starkly different models.

Iran: A Regime Without Public Trust

In Iran, decades of economic hardship and political repression have eroded public support.

  • Younger generations show growing hostility toward the regime
  • Some even view foreign intervention as acceptable if it leads to regime change
  • Disillusionment has reportedly helped foreign intelligence operations

As conflict intensifies:

👉 The regime can no longer rely on broad public backing

Even without mass uprisings, the erosion of legitimacy is evident.

Israel: Strong Internal Cohesion Despite Global Criticism

Israel, though widely criticized internationally, presents a different picture domestically:

  • 93% of Jewish Israelis support the war against Iran
  • Political opposition also backs government policy
  • Public alignment with state strategy remains strong

This cohesion is reinforced by:

  • A political system prioritizing internal unity
  • Limited influence of dissenting groups

👉 The result: state and society act in sync, even under strain

Türkiye: Caught Between Cohesion and Fragmentation

Türkiye sits somewhere between these two extremes:

  • More unified than Iran
  • Less cohesive than Israel

However, the trend appears to be moving toward deeper division.

New Polls Reveal Turkish Public Sentiment on Iran War, NATO and Economy

Erdoğan’s Camp: Security First, Unity Through Strength

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his supporters view the conflict through a security lens:

  • Concern over Israel’s regional military effectiveness
  • Strong rhetoric against Israel
  • Emphasis on defense capabilities

State-aligned media frequently highlights:

  • Missile systems and defense projects
  • The development of Türkiye’s “steel dome” air defense

Beyond military strength, the government has focused on:

  • Energy diversification
  • Food security

These are seen as pillars of resilience in a volatile world.

The Kurdish Issue and Internal Stability

Erdoğan’s strategy for internal resilience also includes:

  • Targeting the PKK domestically and across borders
  • Seeking to end the conflict through the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative

The aim is to neutralize what the government sees as a structural vulnerability.

Opposition: Critical, Cautious, and Divided

Türkiye’s opposition presents a more complex response:

  • Strong criticism of U.S. and Israeli military actions
  • Sympathy for Iranian civilians under both war and authoritarian rule
  • Rejection of foreign intervention

This perspective is shaped by their own experiences:

  • Arrests of opposition figures
  • Pressure on civil society

The İmamoğlu Case: A Turning Point

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has become a defining issue.

  • A leading opposition figure and potential presidential candidate
  • His detention coincided with the escalation of the Iran war

Public reaction:

  • Only about 25% support the arrest
  • Nearly 75% view protests as legitimate

👉 A majority sees the case as unjust

Risks to Democratic Legitimacy

Türkiye’s political stability has historically relied on:

  • High voter participation (around 82%)
  • Belief in electoral fairness

However:

  • The jailing of a major opposition candidate raises serious concerns
  • It risks alienating a large segment of society

👉 This could weaken the bond between state and citizens

Türkiye Moves Ahead In Peace Process With Parliamentary Commission

A Warning from Iran’s Experience

Iran offers a cautionary example:

  • Voter turnout fell sharply as trust declined
  • Political outcomes became more hardline

Türkiye risks a similar trajectory if confidence in elections erodes.

A Fragile Domestic Front

CHP leader Özgür Özel recently framed the issue as one of national security:

  • Argued that internal divisions weaken Türkiye
  • Warned against undermining unity during external threats

The key concern:

👉 Internal political conflict may erode national resilience

Türkiye remains a deeply patriotic society, but growing polarization poses risks.

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