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How Experts Read the Markets: Stocks Caught in a Triangle of War, Rates and Uncertainty

borsa ayı pazarı

Market experts in Türkiye say investor behavior is undergoing a notable shift as the Iran war and a global interest rate shock reshape expectations. Foreign outflows continue to pressure equities, while investors increasingly rotate toward cash and interest-bearing instruments. Although Borsa Istanbul still delivers real returns, the broader market tone remains cautious, with uncertainty dominating positioning.

Foreign Selling Continues to Weigh on Equities

According to Zeynep Aktaş (Milliyet), foreign investors entered the year with strong inflows but reversed course sharply in early March.

  • Heavy selling began in early March
  • Outflows persisted through late March, albeit at a slower pace
  • Pressure on equities remains tied to continued foreign exits

Key takeaway:
As long as foreign selling continues, it will be difficult for the stock market to stage a sustained recovery.

Despite Volatility, Equities Still Lead

A comparison of major investment instruments in the first quarter of 2026 shows that equities remain ahead in real terms:

  • BIST 100: +12.7%
  • Inflation (CPI): +7.9%
  • 1-month deposits: 9.1%
  • Lease certificates: 8.5%

Conclusion:
Despite volatility, equities continue to outperform inflation, maintaining their position as a key return-generating asset.

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Corporate Activity Remains Strong

Several major corporate developments have supported market interest:

  • Eczacıbaşı Holding agreed to sell Sanipak for $600 million
  • Yapı Kredi applied to regulators for crypto transaction services
  • Turcas Holding completed its stake sale in ATAŞ
  • Astor Enerji secured a $768 million contract in the U.S.
  • SDT Space & Defense received a $6 million order

Market implication:
Investor interest remains particularly strong in technology and defense-related companies.

Standout Performers in BIST 30

Performance across sectors highlights a broad-based rally:

  • Destek Finans Faktoring: +233% return
  • Aselsan & Astor Enerji: strong upward momentum
  • Tüpraş & Gübre Fabrikaları: stable performance
  • Tofaş, Koç Holding, Enka: modest but steady gains

Insight:
The rally has not been limited to a single sector, suggesting a relatively diversified performance base.

“War Pricing” Dominates Markets

Zeynel Balcı (Hürriyet) notes that markets are currently driven almost entirely by geopolitical developments.

  • Pricing behavior is heavily war-focused
  • High uncertainty makes directional calls difficult

Shift in investor behavior:

  • Gold and FX have lost part of their appeal
  • Interest-bearing instruments and cash are gaining prominence

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Changing Safe Haven Dynamics

Traditional safe havens are no longer behaving as expected:

  • Gold: volatile
  • FX: relatively stable
  • Interest rates: increasingly attractive

Investors are now:

  • Moving into cash positions
  • Targeting high interest income
  • Adjusting positions based on war developments

Critical Technical Levels for Borsa Istanbul

From a technical perspective:

  • Support: 12,500 – 12,430
  • Lower support: 12,000
  • Resistance: 12,900 – 13,000
  • Upper resistance: 13,300 – 13,440

Market interpretation:
Rallies are increasingly seen as selling opportunities rather than the start of a new upward trend.

“Markets Have Shifted to Defense Mode”

Ömer Faruk Bingöl (Türkiye Gazetesi) highlights a clear defensive stance:

  • Risk appetite has declined
  • The index is range-bound between 12,400 and 13,400

Conditions for a positive scenario:

  • An end to the war
  • Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
  • Normalization of global energy trade

Rising Oil Prices Disrupt the Balance

Experts warn that the era of $60 oil is over:

  • Rising energy costs are fueling inflation
  • Inflationary pressure is weighing on equities

This dynamic creates a negative feedback loop for markets already under stress.

Key Dates: April Market Agenda

Two critical events are expected to shape near-term market direction:

  • April 3: March inflation data
  • April 22: Central Bank of Türkiye rate decision

Implication:
These data points will be decisive for short-term market sentiment and positioning.

Conclusion: A Wait-and-See Market

The consensus among experts is clear:

  • Markets remain highly uncertain
  • Risk appetite is low
  • Investors are positioned defensively

Bottom line:


A strong and sustained market trend is unlikely to emerge before geopolitical risks subside.

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