Tüpraş: Fitch Upgrades Outlook to “Positive”

The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings of Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ş. (Tüpraş) at “BB-“ while revising its outlook from “Stable” to “Positive.” This upgrade directly mirrors Turkey’s improving macroeconomic fundamentals and highlights Tüpraş’s exceptional ability to maintain a rock-solid financial structure despite narrowing refinery margins and a heavy investment cycle.

Tüpraş: Low Leverage & Strong Liquidity

Fitch’s evaluation emphasizes that Tüpraş remains one of the most financially conservative players in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region. Even with a projected increase in capital expenditure, the company’s leverage remains impressively low.

• 2025 EBITDA: Remained stable at approximately $1.4 billion.

• Gross Leverage Ratio: Maintained below 1.0x in 2025; expected to stay under 1.2x through 2029.

• Liquidity Position: Ended 2025 with $2.1 billion in cash against a total debt of only $1.3 billion.

Market Dominance: The Backbone of Turkish Energy

Tüpraş continues to leverage its position as Turkey’s primary refiner, benefiting from high domestic demand, which accounted for 80% of its sales in 2025.

• Market Share: Supplies nearly 100% of Turkey’s gasoline, over two-thirds of its jet fuel, and more than one-third of its diesel.

• Operational Scale: Total refining capacity stands at 650,000 barrels per day.

• Technical Edge: The İzmit refinery, with a Nelson Complexity Index of 14.5, is recognized as one of the most sophisticated facilities in EMEA.

Strategic Transition: 2025–2035 Horizon

The “Positive” outlook accounts for Tüpraş’s aggressive yet disciplined transition toward a low-carbon future. The company is pivoting from traditional refining toward energy efficiency and green power.

• Annual Capex: Projected at $700–$800 million between 2025 and 2035.

• Green Allocation: 80% of this investment is earmarked for carbon reduction, energy efficiency, and zero-carbon electricity projects.

• Dividend Policy: Starting in 2026, the company plans to distribute at least 80% of its net profit as dividends, signaling strong management confidence.

Tüpraş’s External Environment & Peer Comparison

Fitch notes that while global refinery margins are expected to normalize to around $5 per barrel by 2027, the current strength in diesel and jet fuel “crack spreads” in early 2026 provides a short-term tailwind.

Summary of Economic Assumptions

Fitch’s “Positive” outlook is also supported by the broader cooling of the Turkish economy. Inflation is expected to trend downward, with policy rates potentially dropping from 38% in 2025 to 23% by late 2027. This environment is expected to boost consumer and business confidence, further solidifying fuel demand for Tüpraş.