What’s at stake for Erdoğan in the Iran conflict?

As the US–Israel war on Iran enters a critical phase, Türkiye is pursuing an active diplomatic role while seeking to shield itself from economic, political and security fallout. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategy reflects not only a push for regional de-escalation, but also a calculated effort to contain domestic risks—from inflation and public unrest to Kurdish geopolitical dynamics and refugee pressures.

Ankara positions itself as both critic and mediator

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Türkiye has adopted a dual-track approach to the conflict—publicly criticizing Israel while quietly positioning itself as a diplomatic intermediary.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been explicit in assigning blame for the crisis, stating that Israel bears primary responsibility for dragging the region into instability.

At the same time, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emphasized that Türkiye has no intention of being drawn into the war, instead seeking to play a role in ending it.

Despite being a NATO member and a strategic ally of the United States, Ankara has so far avoided direct confrontation with Iran—an outcome partly aided by limited spillover, including reportedly intercepted missile threats.

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Economic vulnerabilities driving urgency

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The most immediate pressure point for Ankara is economic.

Rising oil prices linked to the conflict are widening Türkiye’s current account deficit, with estimates suggesting that every $10 increase in crude adds between $3 billion and $5 billion in additional external imbalance.

This comes at a time when inflation remains above 30%, intensifying the cost-of-living crisis. Public dissatisfaction was already elevated before the war, and prolonged economic strain risks triggering broader social unrest.

For Erdoğan, containing inflation and stabilizing household purchasing power has become politically critical.

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Domestic political risks ahead of elections

The conflict also carries significant domestic political implications.

While elections are officially scheduled for 2028, Erdoğan is widely believed to be considering an earlier vote if conditions allow. Rising inflation and economic hardship, however, complicate that calculus.

The government is particularly sensitive to the risk of protests, viewing economic deterioration as a potential catalyst for public mobilization.

Avoiding a direct spillover from the Iran conflict—whether economic or security-related—has therefore become a key priority for Ankara.

Refugee pressures and public sentiment

Another major concern is the possibility of new refugee inflows.

Türkiye already hosts millions of Syrians following the civil war, and public tolerance for additional migration is widely seen as exhausted.

Any instability in Iran that triggers population displacement could quickly become a politically sensitive issue domestically, further amplifying pressure on the government.

Kurdish dimension raises strategic alarm

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Perhaps the most critical long-term concern for Ankara lies in the geopolitical consequences of how the war evolves.

Turkish officials are particularly wary of scenarios in which Kurdish groups are mobilized as ground forces against Iran. Such a development would echo past US cooperation with Kurdish-led forces in Syria—an arrangement Türkiye has consistently opposed due to links with the Kurdistan Workers Party.

A prolonged conflict could push Washington and its allies to revisit such options, especially if airpower alone proves insufficient.

For Ankara, the emergence of a new Kurdish autonomous entity inside Iran would represent a major strategic threat, potentially fueling broader Kurdish political mobilization across the region.

Shaping the outcome, not just ending the war

Turkish policymakers increasingly view the endgame of the conflict as more important than the conflict itself.

A weakened Iran is not necessarily seen as beneficial if it leads to unintended consequences such as territorial fragmentation, refugee flows or strengthened Kurdish movements.

As a result, Türkiye’s diplomatic push is not purely about peacemaking—it is also about influencing how the conflict concludes.

A balancing act under pressure

Ankara’s strategy reflects a complex balancing act: maintaining ties with Washington, avoiding escalation with Tehran, managing domestic economic stress and preventing new security threats along its borders.

Ultimately, Erdoğan’s approach suggests that Türkiye’s primary objective is to prevent a convergence of risks—economic, political and geopolitical—that could destabilize the country internally while reshaping the regional order in ways that undermine its long-term interests.

Source: FDD, Sinan Ciddi, Ahmad Sharawi

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