Brokerage Roundup: Can Borsa Istanbul Break the 14,500 Barrier Amid Global Tariff Storms?

Following a resilient start to the week, Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) closed at 14,061 points, up 0.92%, fueled by a positive catalyst in the banking sector and falling domestic inflation expectations. However, as the market navigates a complex web of US trade policies and regional geopolitical tensions, Turkey’s leading brokerages have issued updated technical and fundamental guides for the sessions ahead.

Tera Yatırım: “Maintaining the Moving Averages”

Analysts at Tera Yatırım highlight that the index is currently trading above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages, a sign of short-term bullish health.

• Key Levels: They identify 14,161 and 14,261 as the primary resistance hurdles for the day.

• Market Depth: Despite the price increase, trading volume stood at 189.2 billion TL—slightly below the weekly average—suggesting investors are waiting for a clearer trend confirmation.

Yapı Kredi Yatırım: “The 13,700 Floor is Essential”

Yapı Kredi Yatırım maintains a more cautious stance, emphasizing that the rally toward the 14,500 historical peak has entered a “realization phase.”

• Support Focus: The analysts urge investors to keep a close eye on the 13,700 support level. As long as the index holds above this mark, the horizontal consolidation is healthy.

• Downside Risk: A break below 13,700 could trigger a deeper correction toward the 13,300 primary support zone.

Atilla Yesilada: Iran’s war, Türkiye’s headache

A1 Capital: “Mixed Technical Signals”

A1 Capital points out a divergence in technical indicators. While oscillators like MACD and Stochastic are flashing “sell” signals due to the recent peak, RSI and Momentum remain in positive territory.

• Outlook: This suggests that while a massive breakout isn’t imminent, the appetite for “dip-buying” remains alive.

• Crucial Pivot: They view 13,926 as a critical junction; staying above it keeps the 14,200 recovery target in play.

Info Yatırım: “Volatility Ahead of Month-End”

Info Yatırım notes that the recent upgrade in bank stock outlooks by foreign institutions acted as a major catalyst.

• Targets: If the 14,000 psychological level is defended, 14,330 becomes the immediate target.

• Warning: Investors should brace for increased volatility toward the end of the month as derivative expiries approach. They set the daily pivot at 14,090.

Ünlü & Co: “Waiting for the State of the Union”

Linking local performance to global headlines, Ünlü & Co emphasizes the importance of US President Trump’s recent “State of the Union” rhetoric and the upcoming US-Iran talks.

• The Iran Factor: The brokerage believes a true “January-style” momentum will only return if the market sees a de-escalation in Middle East tensions.

• Global Drag: While Borsa Istanbul has shown relative strength against global fragility, the new 15% global tariff announcement by the US may cap gains in export-heavy industrial sectors.

Turkish Market Preview: BIST 100 Eyes 15,000 as Global “Tariff War” Hits New Peak

Market Summary: The consensus among major houses is clear: 14,000 is the new battleground. Bulls need a close above 14,500 to declare a new rally, while bears are waiting for a slip below 13,700 to increase selling pressure.