Retail Boom or Construction Bust? The Surprising Shift in Turkey’s 2026 Economy

The latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) reveals a divided economic landscape as February 2026 comes to a close. While one major sector is surging with newfound optimism, another is struggling to find its footing amidst shifting market dynamics. These seasonally adjusted confidence indices serve as a critical barometer for the nation’s financial health and consumer sentiment.

Retail Sector Hits High Notes with Significant Growth

The standout performer of the month is undoubtedly the retail trade sector. Consumer and business confidence in this bracket rose by 2.9% from the previous month. This surge has pushed the retail confidence index to a strong 115.9 points, signaling a renewed appetite for spending and a positive outlook for shopkeepers and large-scale distributors alike.

Industry analysts suggest that this upward trend reflects a stabilizing consumer base despite broader global pressures. The Retail Confidence Index remains a primary indicator of domestic demand, and February’s results suggest that Turkish shoppers are keeping the wheels of commerce turning.

Service Sector Holds Firm Amidst Market Fluctuations

Often considered the backbone of the economy, the service sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining a steady course. The Service Confidence Index remained unchanged in February, holding firm at 113.8 points.

This stability indicates that while the sector isn’t currently in a rapid expansion phase, it is successfully weathering the current economic climate without losing ground. For investors, this consistency offers a sense of predictability in a market that has seen its fair share of volatility over the past year.

Construction Sector Faces Sharp Downturn

In stark contrast to the retail boom, the construction sector reported the only decline among the main industries tracked by TÜİK. The Construction Confidence Index dropped by 2.1%, falling to a value of 83.9.

This contraction highlights ongoing challenges within the building industry, likely tied to rising material costs or shifting interest rates that impact new project starts. The divergence between the soaring retail figures and the slumping construction data paints a complex picture of Turkey’s economic trajectory heading into the second quarter of 2026.