Low Expectations, “Calm Waters”: Mitsotakis and Erdoğan Prepare for High-Stakes Ankara Summit
rte mitsotakis
As Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis prepares for his high-profile visit to Ankara this Wednesday, the diplomatic air is thick with a mixture of pragmatic optimism regarding trade and deep-seated caution over sovereignty. The meeting, which marks the 6th High-Level Cooperation Council (HLCC), aims to solidify a period of “calm waters” in the Aegean, even as both leaders acknowledge that the fundamental “thorns” in their relationship remain largely untouched.
The “Positive Agenda”: A $10 Billion Trade Ambition
While high-level politics often stall on maritime borders, the economic bridge between Athens and Ankara is sturdier than ever. The two neighbors have set an ambitious strategic target to nearly double their trade volume to $10 billion.
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Steady Growth: From a trade volume of $5.3 billion in 2021, the relationship reached a new peak of $6.7 billion by the close of 2025.
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Trade Dynamics: The balance currently favors Turkey, which recorded a $4.1 billion surplus in 2025. Turkish exports—primarily mineral fuels, iron, and steel—totaled $5.4 billion, while Greek exports closed at approximately $1.3 billion.
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Focus Areas: The summit will see cabinet ministers from both sides ink deals focused on infrastructure, environmental protection, health, and a blossoming tourism sector that has become a vital pillar of the “Positive Agenda.”
The Diplomatic “Thorn”: Sovereignty and Red Lines
Despite the economic sunshine, the geopolitical forecast remains overcast. Athens has been crystal clear: issues of national sovereignty are not on the table. Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis reaffirmed that Greece recognizes only one dispute—the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the continental shelf.
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The “Blue Homeland” Friction: The recent revival of the “Blue Homeland” narrative by the Turkish Ministry of Defense has caused friction. Athens views this as a contradiction to Ankara’s occasional invocations of International Law.
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The SAFE Mechanism and Casus Belli: Diplomatic circles suggest that Greece may use the removal of the Turkish casus belli (threat of war) as a primary negotiation card. In exchange, Athens could potentially ease its blockade on Turkey’s entry into the European SAFE (Security and Fixed Enterprises) mechanism.
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Managing Expectations: Both sides appear to prefer bilateral dialogue over third-party mediation, with Mitsotakis noting that the situation is “more manageable” under the guidance of two “experienced leaders.”
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Regional Divergence: From Cyprus to Gaza
Beyond the Aegean, the two nations remain diametrically opposed on several international fronts:
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Israel: A “strategic ally” for Greece, but a “red flag” for Erdoğan’s Turkey.
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Gaza: Disagreements persist regarding the disarmament of Hamas within the framework of the “Trump Peace Plan” second phase.
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Cyprus: Stalled talks on the Cyprus issue continue to cast a long shadow over broader reconciliation efforts.
Domestic Shifts: The Center-Left Coalition in Athens
As Mitsotakis heads to Ankara, the Greek domestic political landscape is shifting. The main opposition PASOK is set to announce a coalition committee this Monday to unite center-left forces. Simultaneously, former PM Alexis Tsipras is drafting a policy platform to merge social democracy with political ecology, signaling a strengthening of the opposition ahead of future electoral cycles.
Greek media sources
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