Turkey is aging rapidly, development to suffer

Türkiye’s population rose by 0.5% in 2025, reaching 86.1 million, according to data from TÜİK’s Address-Based Population Registration System. On the surface, this suggests demographic resilience. Beneath the headline number, however, the composition of the population is shifting in ways that matter profoundly for growth, productivity, and fiscal sustainability.

The country is aging faster, fertility is declining, and the share of working-age people is peaking. At the same time, Türkiye underutilizes a large portion of its potential workforce — particularly women and young people. Together, these trends form a slow-moving but powerful headwind for economic development.

Why Aging Matters for Growth

Aging does not automatically undermine economic performance. Many advanced economies have aged while remaining wealthy. The problem arises when aging coincides with low productivity growth, weak labor participation, and insufficient institutional adaptation.

In Türkiye, the share of people aged 65 and above has risen from 7.1% in 2007 to 11.1% in 2025. TÜİK projections suggest this ratio could reach nearly one-third of the population by 2100. At the same time, the median age has climbed to 34.9, up from 34.4 just one year earlier.

An older population affects the economy through several channels:

• A higher dependency ratio, increasing pressure on pensions, healthcare, and public finances

• A slower-growing labor force, limiting potential output

• A shift in consumption patterns, often away from investment-heavy sectors

If not offset by higher productivity or broader labor participation, these dynamics reduce trend growth.

Labor Participation: The Bigger Constraint

Aging alone is not Türkiye’s core problem. Low labor-force participation is.

While the share of the population aged 15–64 remains relatively high at 68.5%, Türkiye fails to translate this demographic potential into actual employment. As of late 2025, the overall labor-force participation rate stands at 53.2%, well below both OECD and emerging-market peers.

The main gap is female participation.

Male participation in Türkiye (around 71%) is broadly comparable to peers. The drag comes almost entirely from women.

This matters because growth ultimately depends on how many people work, how productively they work, and for how long. Türkiye scores poorly on the first metric and increasingly faces pressure on the third as aging accelerates.

Youth, NEETs, and Lost Human Capital

Another structural weakness is Türkiye’s exceptionally high share of NEET youth — young people not in education, employment, or training. This represents a double loss:

1. Immediate output loss, as potential workers remain idle

2. Permanent scarring, as skills erode and labor-market attachment weakens

Combined with informality and discouraged workers, this keeps participation artificially low even before aging fully sets in.

Fiscal and Social Consequences

Aging and low participation also intersect with public finances.

According to the Medium-Term Program, social security and public institutional deficits are projected to reach ₺547 billion next year. Average pensions, at around ₺17,259, are among the lowest in Europe relative to living costs.

As the elderly population grows, Türkiye faces a difficult arithmetic:

• Fewer contributors

• More beneficiaries

• Rising healthcare and care costs

Without higher participation or productivity, this dynamic strains budgets and limits the state’s ability to invest elsewhere.

Is This Destiny? No — But the Window Is Closing

Demography sets the direction; policy sets the speed and outcome.

Countries can age and still grow if they:

• Raise female labor participation

• Extend working lives in healthy ways

• Invest in skills, productivity, and lifelong learning

• Build care infrastructure that frees women to work

• Shift from passive welfare to active labor-market policies

Türkiye still has time. Its working-age population remains large, and the aging curve steepens gradually. But the margin for delay is narrowing.

Bottom Line

Aging and low labor-force participation do not automatically doom economic development, but together they form one of the most serious long-term constraints Türkiye faces.

If participation — especially among women and youth — remains stuck where it is, aging will translate into slower growth, heavier fiscal pressure, and rising inequality. If participation rises meaningfully, aging becomes a manageable transition, not a crisis.

The demographic clock is ticking. The economic outcome is still a policy choice.

Turkstat, Evrensel, PA Turkey staff

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