Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Index Declines in January,

Consumer confidence in Türkiye weakened at the start of 2026, according to the Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Index, which recorded a notable decline in January. The data suggests that households entered the new year with increased caution, reflecting weaker perceptions of current conditions, softer expectations for the future, and a reduced willingness to spend.

The Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Index fell by 2.87 percent month-on-month in January, settling at 73.67 points. This marked a nearly 3 percent decline compared to December, indicating that the positive momentum observed toward the end of last year did not carry over into the new year.

Analysts note that while the index remains above its longer-term averages, the January reading highlights growing sensitivity among consumers to income dynamics, purchasing power, and broader economic uncertainty.

Broad-Based Decline Across Sub-Indices

A closer look at the index components reveals that the decline was not limited to a single sentiment dimension. Consumers reported weaker perceptions of their current financial situation, less optimistic expectations for the coming months, and a clear slowdown in consumption tendencies.

All three main pillars of the index, current conditions, future outlook, and spending inclination, deteriorated relative to the previous month. This broad-based weakening suggests that January’s decline reflects structural and cyclical factors rather than temporary sentiment fluctuations.

Economists note that consumer confidence often softens at the beginning of the year, particularly after the year-end period, when spending is typically supported by seasonal factors such as holidays, bonuses, and promotional campaigns.

Seasonal Effects Reverse After Year-End Boost

Consumer sentiment had strengthened in the final two months of the previous year, supported by seasonally driven increases in consumption. End-of-year spending, holiday-related demand, and temporary income effects helped lift confidence levels during November and December.

However, January marked a reversal of this trend. Unlike the year-end period, the new month brought cyclical conditions that worked in the opposite direction, contributing to a pullback in confidence indicators.

Market observers note that the fading of seasonal consumption support, combined with tighter household budgets at the start of the year, often leads to a reassessment of financial expectations. This pattern appears to have contributed to the January decline.

Wage Dynamics Weigh on Financial Expectations

One of the key factors behind the decline in consumer confidence was the limited wage growth, which appears to have adversely affected households’ perceptions of their personal financial situation.

According to the index breakdown, restrained income growth has dampened both current financial assessments and future expectations. As living costs continue to influence household budgets, consumers appear increasingly cautious about their ability to maintain spending levels.

This pressure was reflected in the Bloomberg HT Consumer Expectations Index, which declined 0.87 percentage points month-on-month to 72.84 points. The drop indicates that households are less optimistic about their financial prospects and the broader economic outlook in the near term.

Sharp Decline in Consumption Inclination

The most pronounced deterioration was observed in the Bloomberg HT Consumption Tendency Index, which measures whether consumers view the current period as favorable for purchasing durable goods, automobiles, and housing.

This sub-index fell by 6.31 percent in January, dropping to 83.45 points. The sharp decline suggests that households are becoming more hesitant to make large-ticket purchases, a trend often associated with uncertainty regarding income stability, financing conditions, and future expenses.

Economists interpret this pullback as a signal that discretionary spending may soften in the short term, particularly for items that require long-term financial commitments.

Domestic Demand Signals Mixed but Resilient

Despite month-on-month declines, the data do not indicate a collapse in domestic demand. While January’s figures indicate weaker momentum compared to the previous two months, index levels remain well above the averages recorded over much of last year.

This suggests that consumer demand, although moderating, remains resilient. Analysts emphasize that confidence indicators should be assessed within a broader trend framework rather than interpreted solely on the basis of a single month’s movement.

From this perspective, January’s decline is interpreted as a normalization following a seasonally strong period, rather than as a definitive shift into contraction.