Turkey’s Push for Nakhchivan Rail Corridor Raises Alarm in Moscow

Summary:

Türkiye’s construction of a new railway linking Kars to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave is reshaping geopolitical calculations across the South Caucasus. Accelerated after a U.S.-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement in August 2025, the project threatens to weaken Russia’s leverage, sideline Iran’s transit ambitions, and redraw east–west trade routes linking Europe, Central Asia, and China.

Construction Begins on Strategic Kars–Nakhchivan Rail Line

Türkiye has begun construction of a 224-kilometer (140-mile) railway line connecting the eastern province of Kars to the border of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, marking a significant step in Ankara’s long-standing effort to establish a direct land corridor to its closest regional ally.

The project gained momentum following the August 2025 U.S.-brokered agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which called for the reopening of transit links between Azerbaijan proper and Nakhchivan after decades of disruption. Turkish officials say the rail line is expected to be completed before 2030, barring political or security setbacks.

The new route has the potential to alter the balance of transport corridors in the South Caucasus, challenging existing east–west lines and intensifying competition among regional powers.

A Potential Rival to Existing Transit Routes

If completed on schedule, the Kars–Nakhchivan railway could reduce reliance on the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) line, which currently serves as the primary east–west rail corridor through the region.

By offering a more direct link between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, the new route could divert cargo flows away from Georgia while simultaneously weakening Iran’s position as an alternative transit hub. Analysts note that the corridor would also expand Türkiye’s logistical reach toward Armenia, Central Asia, and beyond.

For Moscow and Tehran, this represents more than a commercial challenge—it threatens to erode long-standing geopolitical influence built around control of transport and trade routes.

Ankara’s Long-Term Strategic Vision

Türkiye has openly framed the Nakhchivan rail project as part of a broader “Middle Corridor” strategy aimed at strengthening connectivity across the Turkic world and linking Europe to Central Asia and China.

The idea of a rail connection between Türkiye and Azerbaijan via Nakhchivan dates back more than a decade. Turkish officials discussed the concept as early as 2012, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev formally committed to the project in 2021.

That same year, Ankara completed a natural gas pipeline supplying Nakhchivan, underlining Türkiye’s intent to deepen its strategic footprint in the exclave.

China’s Quiet but Crucial Role

China has emerged as one of the strongest external supporters of the project. Beijing views the Nakhchivan route as a way to cut transit times for Asia–Europe cargo by a week or more, strengthening overland trade links that bypass Russia and Iran.

For Türkiye, Chinese backing provides both political cover and economic justification for the project. For Iran, however, it raises concerns that the new corridor could undermine Tehran’s ambitions to position itself as the primary east–west transit route linking Asia to Europe.

Azerbaijan’s Heavy Investment Raises Stakes

Azerbaijan has already invested heavily in making the corridor viable. For more than five years, Baku has worked to modernize rail infrastructure stretching from the capital to Armenia’s Syunik region, which forms the eastern segment of the route to Nakhchivan.

In August 2025, President Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan had completed a feasibility study to modernize railways across Nakhchivan itself, from the exclave’s eastern border to its frontier with Türkiye.

Although rail activity slowed during periods of conflict, Azerbaijan maintained limited operations through Iran, ensuring the infrastructure remained functional. Analysts say that any delay by Türkiye at this stage could strain relations with Baku and raise questions about Ankara’s commitment to the partnership.

Georgia Watches Closely

Georgia, whose territory hosts the BTK railway, is monitoring the project with growing concern. The country earns significant revenue from transit fees, and a shift in cargo flows toward the Nakhchivan route could reduce those earnings.

So far, Georgian officials have struck a cautiously optimistic tone, arguing that regional trade volumes are likely to grow enough to support multiple corridors. Still, analysts warn that competition from a faster and more direct route could gradually erode Georgia’s role as a transport hub—especially if Chinese and Central Asian shippers redirect freight.

Armenia’s Mixed Reactions

In Armenia, the project has triggered unease and debate. Critics fear that the rail link could facilitate Azerbaijani control over the Zangezur corridor, long a sensitive geopolitical issue tied to Armenia’s sovereignty.

Others in Yerevan, however, see an opportunity. Some policymakers argue that participation in new transit routes could help Armenia reduce its economic dependence on Russia and integrate more closely with regional trade networks.

This internal debate reflects Armenia’s broader strategic dilemma as Moscow’s influence wanes and alternative partnerships gain appeal.

Iran’s Strategic Concerns

Iran is among the most troubled by Türkiye’s advance. Officials in Tehran view the Nakhchivan corridor as a project that could strengthen Western-backed trade routes while sidelining Iranian alternatives.

Iranian analysts warn that the rail line could open new avenues for political and economic pressure on Tehran, while effectively killing plans for rival east–west corridors running through Iranian territory.

Moscow’s Alarm Deepens

Russia appears to be the most alarmed by Türkiye’s progress. Russian officials and analysts see the corridor as part of a broader expansion of U.S. and Turkish influence in the South Caucasus—an area Moscow has traditionally regarded as its sphere of influence.

The Kremlin is particularly concerned that the route could weaken Russia’s ability to exert leverage over Armenia. Russian Railways has controlled Armenia’s rail system since 2008, but the company’s position has become increasingly fragile amid financial and political challenges.

Losing control over trade routes, analysts say, would significantly reduce Moscow’s influence across the region—a loss that would be difficult to reverse without coercive measures.

Escalating Rhetoric and Rising Risks

Russian commentators have increasingly framed the project as a threat to the so-called “Russian World,” a core concept in President Vladimir Putin’s national strategy. Turkish media coverage celebrating the corridor’s strategic potential—particularly regarding Zangezur—has further fueled Russian anxiety.

Some analysts warn that Moscow could seek to undermine the August 2025 Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement or apply pressure to delay construction, especially if Türkiye receives further backing from China.

A Corridor with Strategic Consequences

As construction progresses, the Kars–Nakhchivan railway is emerging as more than a transport project. It has become a geopolitical fault line, reflecting shifting power dynamics across the South Caucasus.

For Türkiye, the corridor represents a strategic bet on regional connectivity, Turkic cooperation, and integration into global supply chains. For Russia and Iran, it is a direct challenge to long-standing influence. For Armenia and Georgia, it is a test of adaptation in a rapidly changing regional order.

Source:  Eurasia Review

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