Undecideds Surge Shakes Turkish Politics in January Poll

Turkey’s political landscape is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, according to ASAL Research’s January 2026 public opinion survey, which reveals a striking surge in undecided voters alongside a narrow lead for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The findings point to a volatile electorate increasingly detached from party loyalties, even as the two largest blocs consolidate incremental gains.

The nationwide poll, conducted between January 16–24, 2026, shows that when undecided voters are proportionally distributed, CHP emerges as the leading party with 34.8%, followed closely by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) at 32.1%. While both parties registered modest increases compared to December, the data suggests that voter indecision — not partisan momentum — is now the defining feature of Turkish politics.

CHP Leads, but the Margin Remains Fragile

After undecided voters are allocated, CHP’s vote share rises from 33.8% in December to 34.8% in January, marking a one-point monthly increase. AK Party also posts a gain, climbing from 31.3% to 32.1%, an increase of 0.8 points. Despite both parties moving upward, the gap between them widens slightly from 2.5 to 2.7 percentage points, keeping the opposition narrowly ahead.

This outcome places CHP in first position for another consecutive month, reinforcing its relative strength but falling short of signaling a decisive shift in voter alignment. Analysts note that such a narrow margin remains highly sensitive to turnout dynamics and late-stage voter decisions.

Mid-Tier Parties Hold Ground Amid Volatility

Beyond the two dominant parties, the ranking remains largely unchanged. DEM Party retains third place with 8.4%, down from 9.1% in December, suggesting some erosion in its support base. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) follows with 7.0%, slightly down from 7.2%, while the Good Party (İYİ Parti) secures 4.9%, broadly maintaining its previous level.

Among smaller parties below the parliamentary threshold, the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) records 3.3%, New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah) stands at 3.0%, and the Key Party (Anahtar Parti) draws attention with a notable rise from 2.0% to 2.7%, making it one of the few parties showing visible momentum. The Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) registers 1.2%, while other parties collectively account for 2.6% of the vote.

Undecided Voters Become the Largest “Bloc”

The most consequential finding in the survey emerges before undecided voters are distributed. In raw results, 33.4% of respondents identified as undecided or unwilling to vote, making this group larger than any single political party. This marks a sharp increase from 27.4% in December, signaling a rapid rise in voter uncertainty within just one month.

Without redistribution, CHP’s support stands at 23.2%, while AK Party falls to 21.4%. DEM Party registers 5.6%, MHP 4.7%, and İYİ Parti 3.3%. Smaller parties also post significantly lower raw figures, underscoring how heavily final projections depend on assumptions about undecided voter behavior.

This growing bloc of undecided voters reflects widespread hesitation across the electorate, potentially driven by economic pressures, political fatigue, or skepticism toward existing leadership options. Political observers warn that such a high level of indecision introduces substantial unpredictability into any forward-looking electoral scenario.

Comparing December and January: Stability Meets Uncertainty

A month-to-month comparison highlights a paradoxical trend. On one hand, major parties show incremental gains, suggesting consolidation among committed voters. On the other hand, overall uncertainty is expanding, as evidenced by the sharp rise in undecided respondents.

While CHP and AK Party both improve their standings after redistribution, parties like DEM and MHP experience marginal declines. The Key Party’s rise stands out as an exception, hinting at possible voter experimentation outside traditional party structures.

Survey Methodology and Reliability

ASAL Research conducted the January survey across 26 provinces, interviewing 2,000 respondents aged 18 and above via CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The declared margin of error is ±2.5%. For comparison, ASAL’s December 2025 survey was carried out with 1,895 participants using the same methodology.

The consistent polling approach strengthens the credibility of month-to-month comparisons, particularly regarding trends such as the surge in undecided voters.

What the Numbers Suggest Going Forward

The January 2026 data paints a picture of a political system in suspension. CHP’s narrow lead signals competitive momentum, but the overwhelming size of the undecided electorate suggests that no party has yet succeeded in capturing public confidence decisively. For both government and opposition, the data underscores a clear challenge: persuading a growing segment of voters who appear disengaged, skeptical, or unconvinced.

As Turkey moves deeper into 2026, the behavior of undecided voters is likely to determine not only polling outcomes but also the broader direction of the political landscape.