Opinion Polls Signal Growing Discontent with AKP Governance

Summary:

A series of recent opinion polls point to rising voter dissatisfaction with Türkiye’s ruling AK Party, particularly over economic management and social policies. Surveys by Metropoll, GENAR and Piar Research show declining approval across key policy areas, widespread frustration over the minimum wage, and a shifting political balance that continues to favor the opposition CHP.

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Metropoll: Government Fails to Win Majority Approval

Metropoll Research’s “Pulse of Türkiye – December 2025” survey highlights weak public approval of government performance across major policy areas. The poll was conducted between December 10–16 in 28 provinces with 1,103 respondents.

Participants were asked to assess the government’s handling of healthcare, foreign policy, the economy, agriculture, refugee policy and efforts to combat violence against women. None of the policy areas achieved majority approval.

• Healthcare: 47.1% approve

• Foreign policy: 42.5% approve

Even in its strongest areas, approval remained below the 50% threshold, indicating limited public confidence.

Economy and Agriculture Rated Worst

Public dissatisfaction was most pronounced in economic and agricultural policy:

• Economy: 22.2% approve, 75.3% disapprove

• Agriculture: 20.9% approve

• Refugee policy: 24.2% approve

• Combatting violence against women: 23.2% approve

Rising living costs, weak wage growth and dissatisfaction with pension and minimum-wage increases were cited as key drivers of negative sentiment. Notably, the findings show that even voters identifying with the AK Party expressed reservations about government performance.

GENAR: Minimum Wage Discontent Runs Deep

GENAR’s December 2026 expectations survey underscores frustration over the officially announced minimum wage of TRY 28,075. According to the poll, 50.2% of respondents had expected the minimum wage to fall in the TRY 25,000–29,000 range.

Expectations diverged sharply along political lines:

• AKP and MHP voters: Around 45% expected a higher wage of TRY 30,000–34,000

• CHP, İYİ Party and DEM Party voters: A majority predicted a lower range closer to the final figure

The results suggest opposition voters were more aligned with the eventual outcome, while ruling-bloc voters held more optimistic expectations.

Piar Research: CHP Consolidates First-Party Status

Piar Research’s “Türkiye Political Agenda Survey – January 2026”, conducted in 26 provinces with 2,120 respondents, points to a continued lead for the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi.

After redistributing undecided voters, the results show:

• CHP: 34.5%

• Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi: 32.6%

The gap between the two parties widened to 1.9 percentage points, up from 0.6 points in November 2025.

DEM Party Gains, Nationalist Opposition Weakens

Other notable shifts in voter preferences include:

• Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi: 9.2% (stable)

• DEM Parti: 8.7% (up from 7.9%)

• İYİ Party: 4.8% (below the electoral threshold)

• Zafer Party: 4.2%

• Yeniden Refah Party: 2.5%

The data suggest erosion among nationalist and right-wing opposition parties, while DEM Party continues to gain ground.

A Clear Message from the Electorate

Taken together, the surveys point to a consistent pattern: economic pressures—especially inflation, wages and cost of living—remain the dominant factor shaping voter sentiment. While the AK Party maintains a strong core base, dissatisfaction with governance is widespread, and the opposition CHP has so far been the main beneficiary of this shift.

As debates over early elections persist, the polling data indicate that public patience with current economic policies is wearing thin.

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