OPINION: Why Turkish Society Remains Unconvinced by the Peace Process

Summary:

Although Turkey’s new “Terror-Free Türkiye” initiative is officially moving forward, public confidence remains strikingly low. Opinion surveys reveal deep skepticism about whether the process can succeed, widespread suspicion of foreign interference, and, above all, a profound lack of trust in the government’s intentions. Without genuine social consent, analysts warn, the peace process cannot advance to its next stage.

In recent months, many observers have argued that the first phase of Turkey’s renewed peace initiative has been completed, yet the process has stalled before entering a second, more substantive stage. From our perspective, there are three core reasons why the process has failed to convince society at large.

1. A Widespread Belief That the Problem Is Unsovable

The most fundamental obstacle is the public’s lack of faith that the Kurdish issue can actually be resolved.

According to a November 2025 report by the Veri Institute titled “The Kurdish Question, Social Peace, and Perceptions of Resolution,” 64% of the population does not believe the problem will be resolved even ten years from now. Only 21% support the return home of PKK militants after disarmament, while 41% are firmly opposed to any such return.

These figures suggest not merely hesitation, but a deep-rooted conviction that past failures will be repeated — regardless of official rhetoric.

2. Deep Suspicion of Foreign Powers

The second reason lies in the widespread belief that external actors — particularly the United States and Israel — have interests that actively obstruct the peace process. The same survey shows that 69% of respondents believe foreign powers are a major barrier to peace.

Given developments in December, it is difficult to dismiss this perception outright. Among the factors reinforcing public doubt:

• The failure of Syria’s central government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to reach agreement on the country’s future governance structure

• Media reports and commentary suggesting cooperation between the SDF and Israel

• Signs that ISIS may be re-emerging as a security threat in an unexpected manner

Turkey’s strong emphasis on Syria’s territorial integrity and unitary structure reflects a belief that stability inside Turkey is impossible without stability in Syria. The concept of a “Terror-Free Zone” was developed precisely from this logic.

A “Terror-Free Türkiye,” as framed by policymakers, requires not only internal security but also a neighboring region free of armed conflict, governed by democratic institutions and the rule of law. Without this broader regional transformation, domestic peace remains fragile.

3. A Crisis of Trust in the Government’s Intentions

The third — and perhaps most decisive — factor is public mistrust toward the ruling coalition itself.

According to the same research, 59% of citizens believe the government initiated the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process primarily to win elections. Only 21% believe the government is acting sincerely.

Most strikingly, skepticism cuts across political lines:

• 45% of AK Party voters

• 31% of MHP voters

• 55% of DEM Party voters

all believe the process serves the government’s political interests rather than a genuine desire for peace.

In other words, society increasingly sees the government — not the opposition or armed actors — as the principal obstacle to progress.

Peace Initiative or Electoral Strategy?

Turkey is entering a period of growing global instability, with alliances under strain and geopolitical competition intensifying. In such an environment, citizens naturally want security and stability.

Yet while the government calls for “strengthening the internal front,” it simultaneously uses state institutions — especially the judiciary — to sideline political rivals and undermine democratic competition. This contradiction fuels political polarization, erodes social trust, and damages economic confidence.

At this critical juncture, one reality has become clear: without broad social consent, the process cannot move to its next phase.

To rebuild trust, the ruling bloc must first present a unified position and a transparent roadmap. Equally important, it must abandon the divisive rhetoric that frames society as “those who want peace” versus “those who oppose it.”

Even then, consent cannot be manufactured through elite-level agreements alone. As human rights advocate Türkan Elçi has aptly noted:

“Social peace is not achieved through the agreement of a handful of actors.”

As long as the process is perceived as a tool for consolidating political power, the social consent required for lasting peace will remain out of reach. Worse still, this approach risks weakening the very idea of an “internal front” and opening the door to new external concessions under pressure.

Geography as an Additional Constraint

Turkey’s geography compounds the challenge. The Middle East remains one of the world’s most unstable regions, marked by civil wars, terrorism, assassinations, and unaccountable violence.

This is a region where “unnatural deaths” are tragically common. For centuries, communities here have survived by remaining constantly alert. That historical memory persists today.

It is therefore unsurprising that large segments of Turkish society struggle to be persuaded — even when nearly all parliamentary parties appear to agree on ending terrorism. Unless the region itself becomes safer and more predictable in the public imagination, persuasion will remain difficult.

The Persuasion Crisis

Turkey is facing a profound crisis of persuasion, and public support is already eroding.

A December report by PanoramaTR, titled “Türkiye’s Agenda and Risk Analysis,” shows that support for the process has fallen to 56%, down from 61% in July.

People do not believe major problems can be solved unless they see clear, concrete evidence. Persuasion requires both an inclusive vision and emotionally resonant communication.

A security-only approach is insufficient. Any vision for peace that is not grounded in democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights will inevitably be flawed. For Kurds to feel equal and dignified citizens, political representation and democratic inclusion must be central — not optional.

Equally important is addressing the fears embedded in collective memory.

Fear as the Real Obstacle

The first stage of any persuasion strategy should begin with Turkey’s most widespread fear.

According to the Veri Institute’s August 2025 “Fear Survey,” 82% of the population fears being unjustly imprisoned due to a false accusation. This is now the country’s most pervasive anxiety.

In the mid-1990s, the phrase “two officers from the General Staff want to see you” was enough to terrify many citizens. The political landscape has changed since then — but the fear of the state has not diminished. On the contrary, it has deepened and spread.

As long as political dynamics continue to produce and reinforce this fear, society will not be persuaded by promises of a “Terror-Free Türkiye.”

Fear is not — and never has been — a legitimate tool of persuasion in resolving deep social conflicts.

A Choice That Cannot Be Avoided

As the new year begins, the meaning assigned to the phrase “Terror-Free Türkiye” will determine whether the process advances or collapses.

Will Turkey respond to setbacks in northern Syria with yet another military operation?
Or will it move forward patiently, as a confident country that trusts its soft power, its legal system, and its democracy?

Will “Terror-Free Türkiye” remain a campaign slogan designed to win the next election — or become a genuine effort to resolve a historic conflict and solidify national unity?

It cannot be both.

Author: Necati Özkan
Source: KARAR

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