World Bank Revises Up Global and Türkiye Growth Forecasts
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The World Bank has revised up its global growth forecasts, saying the world economy has proven “surprisingly resilient” in the face of what it described as a historic escalation in trade tensions.
In its latest outlook, the Washington-based institution said global real gross domestic product is now expected to expand by 2.6% in 2026, up from a 2.3% forecast published in June.
Despite the upgrade, the World Bank cautioned that downside risks remain significant. It described the resilience of the global economy as “notable,” but warned that renewed trade frictions could still weigh on growth.
“Risks of renewed trade tensions remain elevated, particularly given the possibility that higher tariffs could divert exports to third countries and trigger protectionist responses from domestic producers facing rising import competition,” the report said.
Türkiye Growth Outlook Upgraded
The World Bank also raised its growth projections for Türkiye, citing improved momentum.
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2025 growth forecast: revised up to 3.5% from 3.1%
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2026 growth forecast: increased to 3.7% from 3.6%
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2027 growth forecast: lifted to 4.4% from 4.2%
The upward revisions reflect expectations of continued domestic demand and a more stable macroeconomic environment, according to the report.
U.S. and China Outlook Also Improved
The World Bank raised its U.S. growth forecast for this year to 2.2%, from a previous estimate of 1.6%, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic activity.
Growth projections for China were also revised higher, with the economy now expected to expand by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
Inflation Seen Moderating Further
On inflation, the World Bank said global price pressures are expected to continue easing. Global inflation is now forecast to average 2.6% in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 2.9%, reflecting softer energy prices and weaker demand growth in some major economies.
However, the institution cautioned that geopolitical risks, trade policies, and climate-related disruptions could still pose challenges to the disinflation trend.
