Turkey to Introduce Tiered Natural Gas Pricing in 2026

Turkey is preparing a major overhaul of its household natural gas pricing system, with a tiered tariff model set to take effect in 2026. Under the new framework, consumption limits will be determined city by city, based on local climate conditions and average usage levels. Subscribers who exceed these limits by a wide margin will face higher bills and lose access to government subsidies.

The regulation has been prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources as part of a broader effort to better target public support and reduce the fiscal burden of energy subsidies. Instead of applying uniform assistance across all households, the new system is designed to distinguish between average consumers and those with exceptionally high usage.

No State Support for Excessive Consumption

At the core of the new model is a clear threshold. Households that exceed their city’s average natural gas consumption limit by more than 50% will be excluded from state-supported pricing. Once this threshold is crossed, gas usage will be billed at a higher unit price, resulting in significantly larger monthly invoices.

Officials say the aim is not to penalize ordinary households but to curb excessive consumption and ensure that public resources are directed toward those who genuinely need support. In practice, this means that subsidies will remain in place for most users, while heavy consumers will gradually bear a greater share of real energy costs.

City-Based Consumption Quotas

Unlike a one-size-fits-all national cap, the tiered tariff will be customized for each province. Climate conditions play a central role in this calculation. Cities with harsh winters and longer heating seasons will be granted higher consumption limits, while regions with milder weather will face lower thresholds.

This approach acknowledges Turkey’s geographic diversity. Heating needs in eastern provinces differ substantially from those in coastal or southern regions, and policymakers argue that a city-based system is more equitable than a flat national standard.

Average Usage as the Benchmark

According to reporting cited by Sözcü, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar explained that the ministry will calculate monthly average natural gas consumption for each city. Households whose usage exceeds this local average by more than 50% will fall outside the subsidy framework.

To illustrate the model, Bayraktar shared examples from major cities. In Ankara, the average monthly household consumption is estimated at around 180 cubic meters, while in Erzurum, where winters are more severe, the figure exceeds 200 cubic meters. These averages will serve as reference points when determining who qualifies for state-backed pricing.

Majority of Subscribers Unaffected

One of the key messages from the ministry is that the vast majority of households will see no change in their bills. Official data suggests that approximately 84% of natural gas subscribers will remain within the subsidized consumption range once the system is implemented.

The remaining 16% of users, however, account for nearly half of total household natural gas consumption nationwide. This imbalance is a major reason behind the reform. By focusing on high-volume consumers, the government aims to control subsidy costs without placing additional pressure on average-income households.

Why the Change Matters

Energy subsidies have long been a sensitive issue in Turkey, particularly during periods of global price volatility. While subsidies help shield consumers from sudden cost spikes, they also place a heavy burden on public finances and can encourage inefficient energy use.

The tiered tariff model seeks to strike a balance between social protection and fiscal discipline. By preserving support for most households while scaling it back for excessive consumption, the government hopes to promote more efficient energy use and reduce waste, especially in large homes or properties with inefficient heating systems.

Potential Impact on Households

For average consumers, the change is expected to be largely invisible. Bills will continue to be calculated under the existing support framework as long as consumption remains within the defined limits. For high-usage households, however, the financial impact could be substantial, particularly during winter months.

Energy analysts note that the new system may also encourage investments in insulation, energy-efficient boilers, and smarter heating habits, as households seek to stay below the higher-cost threshold.

A Shift Toward Targeted Support

The introduction of a city-based, tiered natural gas tariff marks a shift away from blanket subsidies toward a more targeted and data-driven policy. By linking support to local averages rather than fixed national limits, the system aims to reflect real heating needs while discouraging excessive use.