Retail on Fire, Trade on Ice: Türkiye’s October 2025 Snapshot

Türkiye’s latest Trade Sales Volume Index for October 2025, released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), paints a mixed picture of the country’s economic pulse. While annual figures highlight solid expansion in both trade and retail, monthly data suggest a noticeable slowdown. According to TÜİK, total trade sales volume increased 7.4% year-on-year, while retail sales volume surged 15.0% over the same period. Every month, however, overall trade sales fell 3.6%, whereas retail sales eked out a modest 0.2% increase.

The divergence between annual and monthly indicators reflects a late-2025 economy in which consumer demand remains resilient. Yet, wholesale activity shows signs of cooling, likely reflecting shifting inventory strategies, tighter financial conditions, and normalization in post-inflation consumption patterns.

Annual Data Signals Strength: Retail Continues to Anchor Domestic Demand

TÜİK’s annual comparison underscores a notable rebound across major trade categories. In October 2025:

• Total trade sales volume rose 7.4% year-on-year

• Motor vehicles, motorcycles, trade, and repair expanded 9.1%, marking a continued recovery in mobility-related consumption.

• Wholesale trade registered a more moderate 3.8% increase

• Retail trade volume led the performance with a 15.0% jump, reinforcing its role as the strongest component of domestic commercial activity

The robust retail momentum is particularly telling. Even after a period of elevated inflation earlier in the year, households maintained spending levels, especially in essential goods and value-driven retail segments. Promotional strategies—still widely used in food, electronics, and household items—also contributed to the rise in real sales volumes.

In effect, the retail sector continues to behave as a stabilizer for Türkiye’s consumption-driven economy, showing adaptability amid evolving price dynamics and shifting consumer preferences.

Monthly Dynamics Reveal Deceleration: Wholesale Weakness Dominates

The month-on-month indicators highlight a different trend. Compared to September 2025:

• Total trade sales volume declined 3.6%

• Motor vehicles and motorcycle sales & repair increased 0.8%, maintaining modest momentum

• Wholesale trade dropped sharply by 6.1%, dragging down the overall index

• Retail sales volume grew 0.2%, signaling steady but subdued demand

The steep monthly drop in wholesale trade suggests a recalibration by businesses—possibly a reaction to inventory build-ups earlier in the year or expectations of slower demand heading into the winter season. Companies may also be adjusting to tighter credit conditions and cost discipline as financial markets anticipate policy stability and continued disinflation toward 2026.

Retail’s slight monthly rise highlights a contrast: though momentum has cooled, consumer-facing spending has not contracted, indicating steady yet cautious purchasing behaviors. Durable goods remain sensitive to price movements, but essentials and low-ticket items continue to support overall retail activity.

What the October 2025 Data Means for Türkiye’s Economic Outlook

The split between strong annual growth and weakening monthly figures offers several insights:

1. Consumption Remains Resilient Despite Normalization

With retail volumes expanding at double-digit rates year-on-year, Türkiye’s domestic market retains significant spending power. This underpins growth as the broader macro environment gradually stabilizes.

2. Wholesale Trade May Signal a Cooling Cycle

The monthly decline in wholesale activity could foreshadow softer commercial sentiment among producers and distributors. As firms reassess demand expectations and pricing strategies, wholesale trends will serve as an early indicator of future retail performance.

3. Automobile-Related Sales Continue to Recover

The ongoing annual rise in vehicle and motorcycle-related trade reflects improving consumer confidence in big-ticket purchases—an area previously struck by inflation and tightening credit.

4. Monthly Retail Growth Suggests Controlled Adjustment, Not Contraction

Rather than indicating a downturn, the slight monthly rise in retail sales implies a gradual normalization after high inflation-driven front-loaded spending earlier in the year.

5. Disinflation and Wage Policies Will Shape 2026 Trends

As Türkiye enters a period of expected disinflation and potential real wage recovery, retail demand may stabilize further, helping the sector maintain its supportive role in overall growth.