CBRT reserves rise as KKM unwinding accelerates – November 28 data overview

Summary 

In the week of November 28, net reserves excluding swaps increased by USD 2.7 billion, though when adjusted for the gold-price effect reserves actually declined by USD 0.5 billion. Non‐residents recorded USD 595 million GDDS purchases, FX deposits rose by USD 320 million, gross reserves reached USD 183.2 billion, while the total share of FX+KKM in deposits continued to fall. KKM outflows reached TRY 3.4 trillion cumulatively since the 2023 peak, TRY deposits grew strongly, and dollarization edged down to 42.1%.

Key reserve and flow developments

In the week of November 28, a USD 2.7 billion increase in net reserves excluding swaps (a USD 0.5 billion decline when adjusted for the gold-price effect), approximately USD 595 million purchases of GDDS by non-residents, and a USD 320 million increase in FX deposits stood out. Additionally, according to the CBRT’s Analytical Balance Sheet data, as of December 3, we estimate an increase of approximately USD 2.7 billion in net reserves excluding swaps (a USD 1.4 billion decline when adjusted for the gold-price effect). The weekly developments can be summarized as follows:

FX deposits & KKM

➢ Parity-adjusted FX deposits increased by a total of USD 320 million, driven by USD 1 million purchases by households and USD 319 million purchases by corporates. Since the beginning of the year, FX deposits have increased by a total of USD 19.9 billion.
➢ FX-protected deposit (KKM) balances decreased by TRY 5.6 billion (approximately USD 0.1 billion) during the week, falling to TRY 16.9 billion. The cumulative unwinding from the peak reached in August 2023 has reached TRY 3.4 trillion (USD 136.6 billion). We may expect KKM accounts to be fully phased out in the coming days.
➢ The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits stood at 39.2%. This ratio had risen to as high as 68.4% in August 2023, when KKM balances peaked.
➢ TRY deposits increased by TRY 228 billion during the week, standing at approximately TRY 15.9 trillion.

Loans & credit growth

➢ FX loans increased by USD 0.8 billion on a weekly basis. Since the end of March 2024, they have grown by 45%, reaching USD 195.3 billion.
➢ Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans increased from 21% to 21.7%, while consumer loans declined from 53.9% to 51.2%.

Foreign investor flows

➢ In the week ending November 28, non-residents purchased approximately USD 595 million in GDDS, raising the stock to around USD 16.5 billion. Between mid-March and the end of April, GDDS saw a total outflow of USD 9.3 billion, while from early May onwards, there has been a cumulative inflow of about USD 8.4 billion.
➢ In equities, non-residents made USD 9 million in net sales during the week, reducing the stock to around USD 31.5 billion.
➢ On the Eurobond side, approximately USD 251 million in net sales were recorded, reducing the stock to around USD 82 billion.

Reserves

➢ In the week of November 28, gross international reserves increased from USD 180.6 billion by approximately USD 2.6 billion to USD 183.2 billion. In the same week, net reserves increased from USD 69.4 billion by USD 2.7 billion to USD 72.1 billion.
➢ Net reserves excluding swaps also increased by approximately USD 2.7 billion (a USD 0.5 billion decline when adjusted for the gold-price effect), rising to USD 57.7 billion. The lowest level of net reserves ex-swaps was USD –65.5 billion at end-March 2024, while the peak was USD 71 billion on February 14, 2025. It is worth noting that rising gold prices had an estimated positive impact of roughly USD 3.2 billion on reserves during the week.
➢ Based on the CBRT’s Analytical Balance Sheet, as of December 3 (covering the first three business days of the week), we estimate increases of USD 4.2 billion in gross reserves, approximately USD 3.5 billion in net reserves, and approximately USD 2.7 billion in net reserves excluding swaps. However, during the same period, the gold-price effect was positive by USD 1.3 billion. Accordingly, excluding the gold-price impact, net reserves ex-swaps indicate an increase of about USD 1.4 billion.

Funds & dollarization

➢ The size of the Money Market Fund (MMF) increased by approximately TRY 97.5 billion in the week of November 28, rising to around TRY 1.44 trillion. Under the Free Umbrella Fund, MMF assets decreased by approximately TRY 105 billion during the week, falling to TRY 1.1 trillion.
➢ The total active size of FX-denominated mutual funds decreased by approximately USD 175 million, falling to USD 77.1 billion. This level stood at USD 25 billion at the beginning of 2024 and around USD 50 billion at the beginning of 2025. Including investment funds, the dollarization ratio declined from 42.2% to 42.1% in the week of November 28. This ratio had reached as high as 70% in mid-2023.

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