Turkish Markets Brace for Inflation Data and CBRT Decision as BIST Ends November Lower

Summary:
Turkey’s financial markets are entering December with a heavy data agenda, led by inflation figures on December 3 and the Central Bank of Turkey’s (CBRT) policy decision on December 11. While the BIST 100 index recovered slightly toward month-end on expectations of another rate cut, it still closed November with a modest decline. Analysts expect a more moderate macro outlook in 2026, continued monetary easing, and a potentially supportive environment for banking and industrial stocks.

Key Domestic Focus: Inflation and the CBRT’s December Rate Decision

The main drivers for Turkish markets in the coming weeks will be:

• November inflation data (Dec. 3)

• CBRT’s rate decision and forward guidance (Dec. 11)

Investors will also closely track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Syria, alongside domestic headlines related to corruption investigations, all of which could influence market sentiment.

BIST 100 Ends November Down 0.66% Despite Late Recovery

The BIST 100 Index experienced notable volatility throughout November as corruption-related headlines pressured market sentiment. Toward the end of the month, expectations that the CBRT will continue cutting rates at its December meeting helped the index stabilize.

Still, the BIST 100 finished the month:

• down 0.66%,

• at 10,898.70 points.

Sector performance diverged sharply:

• Industrial Index: down 3.65%

• Banking Index: up 6.43%, strongly outperforming the broader market

Global Backdrop: Lower Rates, Easing Trade Uncertainty and Hopes for a Ukraine Deal

Globally, expectations that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks will cut interest rates in the coming months continue to support risk assets.

Additional supportive factors include:

• fading tariff uncertainties

• growing expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Russia–Ukraine conflict

• signs of macro stabilization across emerging markets

Analysts say Turkey’s ongoing disinflation program could benefit significantly from a more favorable global rate environment.

2026 Outlook: Softer Conditions and Continued Rate Cuts

Market forecasts point to more moderate macroeconomic conditions in 2026, with the CBRT expected to proceed with its rate-cutting cycle.

This environment is projected to benefit:

• the banking sector

• companies with high financing needs

• export-oriented industrials

As a result, analysts expect a positive yet volatile trading pattern in Borsa Istanbul through December. While periodic pullbacks are likely, the recommendation for medium- to long-term investors remains gradual accumulation.

BIST 100: 12-Month Target of 13,500 Maintained

Given the current macro and valuation backdrop, analysts maintain their 12-month BIST 100 target at 13,500, implying roughly 24% upside from present levels.

Valuation metrics for MSCI Turkey also remain attractive:

• 2025E P/E: 8.63x

• 2025E P/B: 0.92x

These represent steep discounts of:

• 43.8% vs. MSCI EM (P/E)

• 55.0% vs. MSCI EM (P/B)

The model portfolio remains unchanged for this month.

By Seker Yatirim

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