Turkey’s Food Inflation Slows, Pain Doesn’t

Fresh data from the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) indicates that Turkey’s monthly food inflation eased noticeably in November 2025, landing at 1.14%. The decline marks the first time in four months that monthly increases fell back below the 2% threshold, signaling a partial slowdown in food price momentum.

However, the latest readings also highlight a striking contrast between different food inflation measures. The TÜRK-İŞ kitchen inflation index, which focuses on the cost of basic household food items, showed a much sharper monthly rise of 4.98% in the same period — nearly four times TEPAV’s figure.

TEPAV’s Food Price Index: Cauliflower Sees Biggest Drop, Offal Leads Price Surges

TEPAV’s Food Price Index (TEGE) provides a detailed breakdown of category-level movements for November. Among fresh produce, several items registered significant price declines, helping bring the overall monthly figure lower.

The products with the most notable decreases included:

• Cauliflower

• Lettuce (kıvırcık)

• Potatoes

These declines were partially offset by steep price increases within the same category. TEPAV recorded notable surges in:

• Parsley

• Dry onions

• Tomatoes

Outside the fruits and vegetables group, some of the largest price increases were seen in:

• Offal (sakatat)

• Hazelnut paste

• Canned food products

Meanwhile, several staple protein and packaged items became cheaper. The items with the sharpest declines were:

• Fish

• Mayonnaise

• Chicken meat

The diversity in price movements shows an ongoing volatility pattern between perishable and processed goods, suggesting that supply-chain factors, seasonal cycles, and cost pressures remain highly uneven across categories.

Food Prices Since January: Wide Gap Between TEGE and TÜRK-İŞ

When measured from the start of 2025, the two major indexes diverge significantly:

• TEPAV TEGE: up 27.7%

• TÜRK-İŞ kitchen inflation: up 41.5%

On a yearly basis, the difference remains stark. TEPAV calculates annual food inflation at 29.4%, whereas TÜRK-İŞ reports a considerably higher 45%.

This widening gap, driven by the distinct methodologies behind each index, highlights how Turkish households experience food inflation differently depending on their consumption patterns. TEGE includes a broader and more balanced basket, while TÜRK-İŞ’s index reflects the essential items that low- and middle-income households rely on most, especially those forming the basis of minimum-wage and poverty-line calculations.

Why the Difference Matters: Diverging Price Pressures on Households

The discrepancy underscores deeper questions about affordability and vulnerability within the food economy. Lower-income households, whose consumption is dominated by essentials such as bread, fresh vegetables, oils, and protein, may face inflation levels far above the general food price trend reflected in broader baskets.

For policymakers, the gap signals several areas of importance:

• Essential goods inflation remains stubbornly high

• Low-income groups experience disproportional price pressure

• Volatility in fresh produce continues despite seasonal normalization

• Staple protein and processed food dynamics remain unstable

As Turkey heads into the final month of the year, the interplay of seasonal harvest effects, logistical costs, energy prices, and exchange-rate movements will determine whether food inflation continues to ease or accelerates again.

Fresh Produce Volatility Continues, But Processed Foods Show Their Own Pressures

November’s data reveals that while certain vegetables saw meaningful price drops, the increases in offal, hazelnut paste, and canned food suggest that processed and value-added items are facing their own upward cost pressures, likely connected to packaging expenses, input costs, and global commodity fluctuations.

This dual dynamic—volatile fresh produce prices paired with steady increases in processed goods—remains one of the defining characteristics of Turkey’s current food inflation landscape.