Turkey’s SAMEKS Composite Index Rises to 51.7 in November

Turkey’s economic activity continued to show signs of steady recovery in November, according to the latest SAMEKS (Sectoral Business Activity Monitoring Survey) data. The seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index increased by 0.4 points, reaching 51.7, and remained above the critical threshold of 50, indicating ongoing expansion across the economy.

The figures, released by MÜSİAD, offer a detailed look into performance trends across both the service and industrial sectors. While the service sector experienced a modest decline, the industrial sector recorded a significant monthly improvement, ultimately supporting the overall upward movement in the Composite Index.

Service Sector Falls Slightly, Industry Surges Ahead

According to MÜSİAD’s assessment, the Service Sector SAMEKS Index fell by 1.7 points month-on-month, settling at 49.9, just below the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion. This suggests a mild softening in services activity compared with the previous month.

In contrast, the Industrial Sector SAMEKS Index posted a substantial 5.6-point rise to 54.8, marking one of the most notable improvements in the recent period. This increase reflects strengthening production, rising new orders, and improving employment conditions—signals of accelerating momentum in industrial output.

Breakdown of Sector Contributions: Inputs, Stock Levels, and Supplier Performance

In a statement accompanying the data release, MÜSİAD provided insight into the underlying factors shaping November’s performance. The organization explained that improvements in several key components helped support the Composite Index. The translated statement reads:

“In the service sector, input purchases and inventory levels have strengthened the stability of the Composite Index, while in the industrial sector, increases in production, new orders, and employment, along with improvements in inventories and supplier delivery times, made positive contributions to the index. These developments indicate that the recovery in economic activity continues. The fact that the seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index remained above the threshold level at 51.7 points in November shows that economic activity continues to signal expansion.”

This breakdown highlights the differing dynamics across sectors. In services, stronger input demand and stable stock levels helped offset some of the sector’s monthly decline, while the industrial sector benefited from improvements across nearly all operational indicators.

Industrial Strength Dominates November Performance

The industrial sector’s performance stands out as the primary driver of November’s overall positive result. Rising production volumes, coupled with an uptick in new orders, indicate stronger demand conditions both domestically and potentially in foreign markets. The increase in employment within the sector also suggests that firms are preparing for sustained activity rather than temporary fluctuations.

Additionally, improvements in supplier delivery times point to a smoother supply chain environment compared with earlier months. This could be linked to logistics stabilization, easing cost pressures, or better alignment between suppliers and manufacturers. Together, these factors provide a supportive backdrop for continued industrial expansion as we head into the final months of the year.

Service Sector: Minor Weakness but Underlying Stability

Although the service sector slipped below the threshold level, the decline was relatively small, and indicators such as inventory stability and sustained input purchasing point to underlying resilience. Sector analysts note that service providers may be adjusting activity levels in response to seasonal changes or shifts in consumer behavior rather than facing structural concerns.

Given that services make up a substantial portion of Turkey’s overall economic output, even slight changes in performance can influence broader activity levels. However, the strong industrial uptick in November helped balance the overall Composite Index, maintaining its position in expansion territory.

Economic Outlook: Continued but Gradual Recovery

The November SAMEKS results suggest that Turkey’s economy is continuing to expand at a measured pace. Remaining above the threshold level for another month reinforces the view that business activity is stabilizing, supported particularly by industrial recovery. With demand indicators improving and supply chains showing signs of normalization, economic momentum appears likely to persist in the near term.

Economists emphasize that maintaining this positive trend will require continued policy support, particularly in sectors sensitive to domestic spending conditions such as retail and hospitality.