Turkey’s Foreign Trade Gap Widens in October

Turkey’s latest foreign trade statistics reveal a widening gap, as October exports rose only slightly while imports accelerated more sharply. According to provisional data jointly produced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and the Ministry of Trade, exports increased by 2% year-on-year to 23.94 billion dollars, whereas imports climbed 7.2% to reach 31.52 billion dollars. This divergence pushed the monthly trade deficit up to 7.58 billion dollars, marking a 27.6% increase compared with the same period last year.

The figures were released under the General Trade System (GTS), which captures a broad definition of cross-border goods movements. The data illustrate that although export performance remains resilient, rising demand for imported goods continues to pressure the external balance.

Export–Import Coverage Ratio Declines

One of the key indicators in monthly trade analysis is the export-to-import coverage ratio, which shows how much of imports are financed through export earnings. In October 2024, this ratio stood at 79.8%, but last month it slipped to 76%, highlighting that exports did not keep pace with the faster import growth. This trend contributes directly to the swelling trade deficit and signals persistent demand for intermediate and consumption goods sourced from abroad.

January–October Period Shows Continued Expansion of Trade Volume

The first ten months of the year also reflect similar dynamics. From January to October, Turkey’s exports rose 3.9% year-on-year to 224.47 billion dollars, while imports increased 6.1% to 299.15 billion dollars. As a result, the cumulative foreign trade deficit widened by 13.3%, reaching 74.68 billion dollars for the period.

The export-to-import coverage ratio during the first ten months declined from 76.6% last year to 75% this year, establishing a downward trend that mirrors the monthly performance.

Trade Performance Excluding Energy and Non-Monetary Gold

To provide a clearer view of underlying trade dynamics, analysts often examine figures excluding energy products and non-monetary gold, both of which can cause significant volatility due to price and volume fluctuations. In October, exports excluding these categories increased 3.8%, rising from 22.02 billion dollars to 22.83 billion dollars. Imports, however, climbed more rapidly, increasing 5.2% to 23.86 billion dollars.

This subset of data reveals a 1.01 billion dollar trade deficit for the month, demonstrating that even without energy and gold, Turkey’s external trade balance remains under pressure. The total trade volume excluding these two categories expanded 4.5% to 46.72 billion dollars. Notably, the export-to-import coverage ratio excluding energy and gold stood at 95.8%, indicating a significantly more balanced structure when volatile commodities are removed.

Manufacturing Sector Dominates Export Composition

Turkey’s export structure in October remained predominantly driven by manufacturing. According to the sectoral breakdown, the manufacturing industry accounted for 94.4% of all exports. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries represented 3.3%, while mining and quarrying contributed 1.6%. These ratios reflect a consistent pattern: over the January–October period, manufacturing retained a 94.5% share, while agriculture and mining remained stable at 3.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

The dominance of manufacturing underscores its central role in Turkey’s export engine. However, it also implies strong dependency on imported intermediate goods, which can amplify import volumes during periods of high production activity.

Import Composition: Intermediate Goods Lead

The classification of imports by broad economic categories shows that intermediate goods continue to account for the largest share of Turkey’s foreign purchases. In October, intermediate goods made up 68.3% of total imports, followed by capital goods at 16% and consumption goods at 15.5%. This distribution is typical of economies with significant industrial output that rely on imported raw materials, components or semi-finished goods.

In the first ten months of the year, the share of intermediate goods increased slightly to 68.9%, while capital goods accounted for 14.6% and consumption goods made up 16.2% of total imports. The sustained predominance of intermediate goods highlights the structural challenge of reducing import dependency while maintaining industrial expansion.

Outlook: External Balance Pressured by Import Demand

Turkey’s October trade data reinforces an ongoing trend: while exports continue to grow steadily, import demand remains strong, creating upward pressure on the trade deficit. With both global and domestic economic conditions influencing energy prices, commodity needs and consumption patterns, policymakers are expected to closely monitor the balance between production-driven import requirements and export competitiveness in the coming months.