JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Warn of a Global Energy Shake-Up

Two of the world’s most influential financial institutions—JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs—are forecasting a dramatic transformation in global energy markets. According to their newly released projections, international oil prices could fall by as much as 50% over the next few years, pulled down by a mounting global supply surplus.

While such a collapse could lower fuel prices for consumers, analysts warn that it may also create an unexpected twist: electric vehicle charging could become more expensive than gasoline, especially for drivers who rely on public fast-charging infrastructure.

Brent Crude Could Fall to $30 by 2027

JPMorgan’s latest analysis suggests that Brent crude, the key international benchmark, could slide to $30 per barrel by 2027. The bank bases its projection on the expectation of a long-lasting global oversupply, which would steadily push prices downward.

Market pressure is already visible. Brent has fallen roughly 14% since the start of the year, recently stabilizing near $62.59 per barrel—a sign that supply-side dynamics are already reshaping valuations.

Goldman Sachs Lowers WTI Outlook Amid a 2 Million Barrel Surplus

Goldman Sachs is projecting a similar trend for WTI (West Texas Intermediate), the U.S. benchmark. The bank expects WTI to average around $53 per barrel in 2026, pointing to a substantial imbalance between supply and demand.

Goldman’s Global Co-Head of Commodities Research, Daan Struyven, explains the logic: the global oil market could face a daily surplus of nearly 2 million barrels next year, placing significant downward pressure on prices. Struyven recommends a short position in oil, arguing that 2026 marks the final year of a powerful supply wave, after which the market is expected to find equilibrium again.

However, other analysts caution that prices may not fall endlessly; many consider sub-$40 scenarios unlikely without additional geopolitical shocks or severe demand destruction.

Could Peace Talks Reduce Prices Even Further?

Geopolitical developments are another critical variable. Renewed diplomatic efforts surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict are being closely monitored by energy traders. Sources familiar with recent meetings between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Geneva described the discussions as “highly productive.”

A future peace agreement could lead to the loosening of certain sanctions on Russia, which remains a major global energy exporter. Any easing of restrictions would likely enlarge global supply and reinforce downward price momentum across the oil market.

What Falling Oil Prices Mean for Consumers

If the projections materialize, the effects would ripple across households, transport systems, and energy markets.

Gasoline and Diesel Prices Likely to Decline

Fuel prices are tied directly to crude oil benchmarks and refinery output costs. A sustained fall in Brent and WTI would

• reduce refinery input prices,

• lower wholesale fuel costs, and

• eventually bring down pump prices.

This would offer broad relief for consumers worldwide—particularly in markets where fuel taxes or currency fluctuations do not entirely offset the global price trend.

A Surprising Twist: EV Charging Could Become More Expensive

One of the most unexpected implications concerns electric vehicles. If gasoline prices fall sharply while electricity prices remain elevated, the cost-per-kilometer advantage of EVs could narrow—or even reverse.

Analysts note that:

• Drivers who rely on home charging may see little change, since household electricity rates tend to move slowly;

• However, drivers using public charging stations and high-speed chargers could face higher per-mile energy costs than owners of gasoline or diesel vehicles if oil falls by 50%.

In markets where public charging tariffs are already high, the price gap could widen notably, forcing some consumers to rethink the economics of EV ownership.

The Global Energy System Enters a New Phase

The forecasts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs underscore a structural shift that could redefine global energy markets through the rest of the decade. An extended supply surplus, geopolitical recalibration, and evolving consumer behavior are converging into a new, complex landscape.

If Brent truly moves toward $30 and WTI toward the low $50s, the implications for fuel markets, electric mobility, energy investment and global trade could be profound. The next three years may determine whether the world enters a new era of abundant cheap oil—or whether unexpected shocks disrupt these projections altogether.