BIST-100 Defies Global Weakness: The Crucial 10,850 Resistance Test

The BIST-100 index closed the day up 0.28% at 10,728, showing resilience despite weakness in global markets. Analysts agree that the index faces a critical test at the 10,800–10,850 range, with limited momentum until this hurdle is cleared.

The Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Index successfully ended its second consecutive trading day in positive territory, closing up 0.28% at 10,728.60 despite opening lower due to lingering global selling pressure.

The market’s primary characteristic, according to brokerage consensus, remains its resilience against the general weakness seen across major global equity markets. However, analysts caution that this effort to recover from last week’s sharp decline lacks the powerful momentum needed for a sustainable rally, placing the index at a critical technical juncture.

Trading volume saw a noticeable decline, settling at TRY 125.2 Billion, down from the previous day’s figure, suggesting caution among investors.

The Critical Technical Hurdle: 10,850

Technical indicators show short-term oscillators attempting to consolidate, supporting the marginally positive outlook. However, the path forward is clearly defined by strong overhead resistance:

• Immediate Resistance (Crucial Test): The most significant hurdle for the BIST-100 is the 10,800 to 10,850 range. Brokerages emphasize that clearing and sustaining trade above 10,850 is the first major test required to validate the ongoing recovery attempt.
• Next Targets: Should the index manage a decisive break above 10,850, momentum could accelerate towards the 11,050 and 11,150 resistance levels.
• Key Support: In the event of a pullback, the 10,630 level, corresponding to the 100-day moving average, serves as critical short-term support. Deeper support rests near the 10,400 region (rising trend support), with the 200-day exponential average at 10,200 serving as the main medium-term anchor.

Stock Drivers and Macro Headwinds

On a stock-specific basis, the index’s positive movement was primarily driven by heavyweight shares: Tüpraş (TUPRS) and Bim Mağazaları (BIMAS) contributed the highest positive point impact. Sectorally, Mining, Financial Leasing, and Construction led the gains.

The BIST-100’s struggle to find strong momentum comes amid a period of pronounced underperformance. Analysts note that the index has been trading at a loss of approximately 2.2% since the start of November, and returns over the last three months have significantly lagged behind the high Turkish Lira deposit rates, making a substantial capital inflow into equities challenging.

Investor focus remains firmly fixed on global events that will shape risk appetite:

• FOMC Minutes (Tonight): The release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes will be closely scrutinized for signals regarding the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have been eroded, contributing to fragility in global stock valuations.
• NVIDIA Earnings: The earnings report from technology giant NVIDIA will also be a key factor in determining risk sentiment, particularly concerning high valuations in the technology sector globally.

Key Takeaway

The market currently exhibits technical resilience against the backdrop of global weakness, but it is effectively in a consolidation phase. Until the 10,850 level is conclusively breached, the upward movement is viewed as a cautious reaction rally rather than a sustainable momentum shift.