Turkish Consumer Confidence Jumps on ‘Black Friday,’ But 59% Expect Economic Decline

Despite a sharp rise in the Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Pre-Index in November, fueled by Black Friday deals and lower interest rate optimism, a new Asal Research survey reveals that 59% of Turks expect the economy to worsen, while 36% believe no political party can solve the country’s problems.

A paradoxical split has emerged in Turkish economic sentiment, with official consumer confidence data pointing up, even as broader public opinion reflects deep pessimism about the future.

The Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Pre-Index for November saw a significant increase, rising by 5.56% compared to the previous month’s final index, reaching a value of 72.14.

According to a statement sent to ForInvest News, the jump in consumer sentiment is largely attributed to temporary factors:

“Analysis of the sub-indices shows an increase in both consumer future expectations and consumption tendency. We observe rising inflation expectations in the sub-indices. We believe the fundamental reason for the index increase in November is the discounts associated with ‘Black Friday,’ which extended across many sectors,” the statement noted.

Rising inflation expectations appear to have supported the consumption tendency, possibly encouraging forward buying. Furthermore, expectations that interest rate cuts will fuel economic growth in 2026 may have positively influenced future outlooks.

• Consumer Expectation Pre-Index: Increased by 5.30% to reach 70.36.
• Consumption Tendency Pre-Index: Surged by 10.08% to reach 84.09. This is the highest value recorded for the Consumption Tendency Index since December of the previous year, driven by the “Black Friday” campaigns and discounted prices expected in sectors like automotive in December.

Public Pessimism Dominates: The Asal Research Survey

In stark contrast to the uptick in confidence driven by discounts, a recent public opinion poll by Asal Research reveals a population deeply concerned and skeptical about the country’s trajectory.

The survey, conducted between November 1 and 9 across 26 provinces with 2,015 participants, highlighted a profound lack of faith in both the current economic path and the political system’s ability to fix it.

Economy is the Overwhelming Concern

When asked, “What do you think is Türkiye’s most important problem?” the results were conclusive: Economy/Cost of Living was cited by nearly six out of ten people.

Outlook: Expectation of Decline

Regarding the near future, the public’s view is heavily skewed towards deterioration. When participants were asked, “Do you think the Turkish economy will get better or worse in the next 6 months?”, the results showed massive pessimism:

• Worse: 58.8%
• Better: 23.4%
• No Change: 10.2%
• No Opinion/No Answer: 7.6%

Crisis of Political Confidence

Perhaps the most startling finding concerns the political landscape. When asked which political party could solve Türkiye’s problems today, the majority response was a powerful sign of disillusionment:

• None of Them: 36.0% (The top choice by a wide margin)
• AKP: 23.2%
• CHP: 19.6%
• DEM Party: 4.4%
• MHP: 3.1%
• İYİ Party: 2.6%

The Call for Regulatory Action on Food Prices

Finally, citizens were asked what should be done to stabilize fluctuations in food prices. The top solution overwhelmingly pointed to regulatory reform:

• Regulations in the Warehouse Law (Hal Yasası): 42.2%
• Product Tracking System: 14.0%
• Preventing Packaging and Spoilage Losses: 10.4%
• Special Incentives for Greenhouse Farming: 8.8%

The November data presents a clear picture: Turkish consumers are willing to spend now, driven by discounts and inflation fears, but they remain deeply worried about the long-term health of the economy and their government’s ability to address structural issues like the cost of living and deep-seated political solutions.