ANALYSIS: Borsa Istanbul Extends Losses as Global Tech Selloff, Corporate Raids Weigh on Sentiment

Investors retreat amid Fed uncertainty and domestic policy caution; index posts fourth straight weekly loss

Borsa Istanbul extended its decline on Friday, mirroring the global selloff in technology shares, as investors reassessed expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts and weighed rising domestic risks.

The benchmark BIST 100 index closed down 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss. The move followed a turbulent session on Wall Street, where fading optimism about the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut triggered heavy selling in major tech stocks.

Inflation Expectations Rise as TCMB’s November Market Participants Survey Signals Shifting Outlook

Intraday performance: Index nears key support

After opening the day 0.22% lower at 10,604.89, the BIST 100 slipped as much as 1.4% during the session to an intraday low of 10,476, its weakest level in three days. The index last traded at 10,485, down 1.35%.

On Thursday, the benchmark had ended at 10,628.63, down 0.11%.

Technology stocks led losses, tumbling 1.5%, followed by declines of 0.9% in services, 0.3% in industry, and 0.18% in financials.

Among the most traded names were Koza Altın, Turkish Airlines, Aselsan, Sasa Polyester, and Akbank.

Market strategists now identify 10,550 and 10,500 as key support levels, with 10,700 and 10,800 acting as near-term resistance.

Global backdrop: Fed and tech drag on sentiment

The selloff in Istanbul tracked broader weakness across global markets. In the U.S., fading odds of a December Fed rate cut and mounting concerns about inflation fueled a retreat from equities, particularly in the high-valuation technology sector.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.7% in a single session — one of its steepest declines in recent months — as investors rotated into safer assets amid higher U.S. Treasury yields.

The pressure spread to European and regional exchanges, with indices in Poland and Romania also erasing early-week gains. Despite a weaker dollar, most emerging-market currencies traded flat.

Local factors: Inflation expectations rise

On the domestic front, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) released its latest Market Participants Survey, revealing that year-end inflation expectations have risen.

The data came as the CBRT continues to signal a cautious stance on monetary easing, with policymakers emphasizing the need to maintain tight financial conditions to anchor inflation expectations.

Elsewhere, euro area growth and trade balance data were in focus internationally, further dampening global risk appetite.

Market outlook: Limited upside amid political and policy risks

Analysts say investors remain wary of renewed domestic regulatory scrutiny and limited upside potential in Turkish equities compared with high-yield lira deposits, which currently offer 35–40% annual returns.

Despite stronger central bank reserves, strict monetary policy, and expectations of increased exports to Syria and rare-earth investment inflows in 2025, foreign participation remains muted.
Market participants cite persistent political uncertainty and regulatory actions as weighing on risk sentiment.

The BIST 100’s 12-month consensus target stands around 13,500 points, implying a potential annual gain below 30%, leaving equities relatively unattractive versus fixed-income alternatives.

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