Turkish Treasury Cash Balance Analysis: October 2025 Deficit Widens Amid High Inflation
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ANKARA – The Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced its cash balance data for October 2025, reporting a monthly cash deficit of 195.9 billion TL, a significant increase from the 167.3 billion TL recorded in October 2024. The data highlights a continued struggle to contain spending, particularly the soaring cost of debt.
October 2025 Performance vs. October 2024 (Monthly Figures)
| Metric | Oct 2025 (TL Billion) | Oct 2024 (TL Billion) | Absolute Change (TL Billion) | % Change (Nominal YOY) |
| Cash Income | 1,138.2 | 854.9 | +283.3 | +33.1% |
| Cash Expenditure | 1,334.1 | 1,020.0 | +314.1 | +30.8% |
| Non-Interest Expenditure | 1,174.2 | 896.0 | +278.2 | +31.0% |
| Interest Payments | 159.9 | 126.3 | +33.6 | +26.6% |
| Cash Deficit | 195.9 | 167.3 | +28.6 | +17.1% |
The Real Picture: Inflation-Adjusted Change
Given that Turkey’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at approximately 32% year-over-year in October 2025, the nominal changes must be adjusted to determine the true, inflation-adjusted (real) fiscal performance. When factoring in the 32% inflation rate:
| Metric | Nominal % Change | CPI Adjustment (32%) | Real % Change (YOY) |
| Cash Income | +33.1% | -32.0% | +0.8% |
| Cash Expenditure | +30.8% | -32.0% | -0.9% |
| Non-Interest Expenditure | +31.0% | -32.0% | -0.8% |
| Interest Payments | +26.6% | -32.0% | -4.1% |
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, the October figures paint a complex fiscal picture. Treasury cash income managed to barely keep pace with inflation, growing by a marginal +0.8%. More encouragingly, total cash expenditure and non-interest expenditure both saw a minor contraction in real terms (approx. -0.9% and -0.8% respectively), indicating that while nominal spending soared, the government’s spending power was slightly curtailed by inflation. However, the most critical metric, Interest Payments, failed to keep up with the 32% CPI, showing a real-term contraction of -4.1%. This suggests that while interest rates are high, they are still struggling to keep pace with the overall rate of price increases, meaning the real cost of debt servicing, while significantly higher than the previous year, is not expanding as rapidly as inflation itself.
Conclusion
The October 2025 cash balance highlights the Treasury’s success in marginally increasing real revenues and achieving a modest real contraction in non-interest expenditure, an indication of some fiscal restraint under the new economic program. However, this success is overshadowed by two persistent concerns. First, the Cash Deficit still widened nominally by 17.1%, demonstrating that the gap between income and expenditure is growing. Second, and more critically, the massive nominal increase in Interest Payments (+26.6%) underscores the severe and rising cost of the government’s debt burden, which consumes an ever-larger portion of the budget and will continue to be the primary driver of Turkey’s need for high net borrowing.
