Europe Faces a New Age of Power Politics — and Turkey Is Emerging as a Strategic Pivot

European officials are openly debating whether the era of the nation-state is over and whether a new geopolitical model — based on spheres of influence and imperial-scale power blocs — is taking shape. Amid U.S.–China rivalry, a more aggressive Russia, and instability in the Middle East, Turkey has rapidly increased its strategic value to Europe. Recent high-stakes defense deals and diplomatic overtures from London, Berlin, and Paris reflect a shift in European thinking: Turkey is no longer just a neighbor but an indispensable pillar of Europe’s future security architecture.

“Nation-states can no longer survive alone”: Europe’s new existential debate

Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian Prime Minister and prominent EU federalist, has revived a provocative idea in European politics:

“Tomorrow’s world order will not be built on nation states. It will be built on empires.”

His comments — repeated after U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference — reflect a growing anxiety in European capitals: a belief that Europe is too fragmented and too slow to act alone in a world dominated by large power blocs such as the United States, China, Russia, and increasingly, Turkey.

Verhofstadt’s argument is simple:

• Europe cannot deter Russia,

• cannot balance China,

• and cannot rely forever on an unpredictable United States.

The conclusion? Europe must build a continental military and geopolitical power structure.

Multipolar world, revived power politics

The past five years have shattered the belief that globalization and interdependence had ended traditional geopolitics. Instead, multipolar rivalry is back — and visible on the map.

Recent developments underline this trend:

• Russia seized one-fifth of Ukraine, reshaping European borders by force.

• Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh with decisive support from Turkish drones.

• U.S. and China are competing in the Pacific and Arctic, militarizing new regions.

• Middle Eastern states are carving out spheres of influence in Syria and Gaza.

• India and Pakistan engaged in a near-peer standoff despite nuclear risks.

• African states are redrawing borders and contesting maritime access.

In a multipolar system, countries seek security through alliances, protectorates, and influence zones, not solely through international institutions. Europe — built on the post-Cold War assumption of endless peace — is struggling to keep up.

Turkey re-enters the stage as a geopolitical power

Amid this transformation, Turkey has become one of the most consequential actors.

Over the past decade:

• Turkey reshaped South Caucasus geopolitics by enabling Azerbaijan’s military victory.

• It established military presence and influence in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean.

• It altered the balance in northern Syria, working directly with global powers.

• It opened channels both with Russia and Ukraine, positioning itself as a critical mediator.

• It disrupted Kurdish militias abroad while initiating domestic political normalization.

In practical terms, Turkey has become the only NATO country capable of projecting force across three continents without relying on U.S. or EU logistics.

This shift did not go unnoticed in European capitals.

Europe moves closer to Turkey — not out of affection, but necessity

Recent moves speak volumes:

British officials privately frame the fighter jet sale as realpolitik, not commerce. The deal helps sustain Britain’s defense industry, but more importantly:

It brings Turkey closer to Europe’s collective defense structure.

In today’s strategic climate, Europe needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe.

Why Turkey matters to Europe’s future

Analysts highlight three core reasons:

1. Military capability

Turkey produces combat drones, missiles, armored vehicles, and naval systems — and exports them globally. No EU country has comparable self-sufficiency in defense manufacturing.

2. Geographic leverage

Turkey sits on the chokepoint of Eurasia — between Russia, the Middle East, and Europe. Whoever works with Ankara gains access to the most strategic land corridor in the northern hemisphere.

3. Balance of power expertise

Turkey balances Russia without provoking direct confrontation — something Europe has struggled to do.

As one European diplomat put it:

“Turkey does not just demand a seat at the table. It brings the table.”

Europe’s nation-state problem

Across Europe, populist and nationalist movements are gaining power. Coalition governments are fragile, political elites fractured, and foreign policy inconsistent.

According to several political analysts:

• European states are too small to act alone,

• too divided to act together,

• and too dependent on U.S. protection.

That is why Verhofstadt and others argue that only large power blocs will survive in the coming decades.

Where this is heading

Turkey’s growing influence is not about reviving old imperial fantasies. It is about strategic adaptation:

• building regional influence,

• stabilizing its borders through diplomacy and limited intervention,

• and positioning itself as a pivotal actor between East and West.

Europe, meanwhile, is facing a harsh reality:

In an age of power blocs, fragmentation is fatal.

If Europe wants to remain relevant, it must partner with countries that can project force and shape events.

Right now, that country is Turkey.

Source:  Engelsberg Ideas

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