The ‘indispensable’ Erdoğan: Western realpolitik cushions Ankara as domestic crackdown deepens

By Gonul Tol, New York Times

A New York Times opinion by Gönül Tol argues that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has leveraged Turkey’s strategic value to secure high-level engagement with Western leaders—even as mass arrests, opposition mayor detentions, and an ailing economy fuel unrest at home. From defense-industrial deals and migration leverage to war-time diplomacy over Ukraine, Ankara’s utility has encouraged a pragmatic approach in Washington and European capitals, complicating efforts by Turkey’s pro-democracy camp.

A high-stakes balancing act

Turkey’s president has long sought visible affirmation from Western partners, and recent images underscore that bid: a White House meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in September; handshakes days ago with Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. According to Tol’s analysis, these optics carry domestic weight, projecting international acceptance at a time of economic strain and political pressure at home.

The price of access, she writes, has included commercial sweeteners: reported purchases of Boeing aircraft and F-16s, the removal of additional tariffs on U.S. goods, and a 20-year LNG import deal—moves framed as deepening strategic and economic ties with the United States.

Domestic pressure meets international pragmatism

The author points to a widening gulf between Turkey’s internal and external tracks:

• Domestic arena: Police detained Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s opposition mayor and Erdoğan’s chief rival, in March, alongside a wave of arrests targeting CHP mayors, officials, and members. Protests persisted through the year. Courts later issued another warrant for İmamoğlu on “political espionage” charges—escalations critics call politically motivated.

• External arena: Erdoğan continues to cultivate partnerships with Western governments. Tol argues that these relationships provide political cover and economic lifelines, enabling Ankara to tighten control while claiming indispensable status in regional security, migration, and defense supply chains.

Erdoğan rose on promises to curb corruption, cut poverty, and broaden freedoms; Turkey even opened EU accession talks in 2005. But years of currency instability, inflation, and institutional backsliding have reversed early gains, leaving a poorer and more polarized polity—all while foreign ties help ease external financing and bolster his image.

Migration leverage: Europe’s 2016 bargain

Tol highlights the EU’s 2016 migration deal with Turkey as a turning point. Brussels pledged €6bn for refugee support and softened critical rhetoric, signaling that if Ankara delivered on European priorities—stemming flows from Syria—Europe would temper public censure. That bargain, she argues, taught Ankara that delivery > democracy in Europe’s hierarchy of needs.

War in Ukraine and a broader defense reset

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine reshaped Europe’s threat calculus. Here, Ankara positioned itself as both mediator and enabler, keeping channels to Kyiv and Moscow open while backing Ukraine with Turkish-made defense technologies. Tol notes growing Turkish roles in allied supply chains, including a U.S. munitions plant using Turkish production lines.

Meanwhile, European rearmament—and uncertainty about U.S. commitment to NATO—has increased Turkey’s strategic value:

• The EU’s SAFE initiative reportedly included Turkey, granting access to defense funding and joint procurement pathways.

• U.K.-Turkey security dialogue advanced, culminating in Eurofighter sales discussions during PM Starmer’s Ankara visit.

• Germany’s Merz followed with a message that there is “no way around a good and deepened partnership” with Turkey.

These moves, the column suggests, reinforce the notion of Erdoğan as indispensable—a partner too useful to sideline, regardless of democratic deterioration at home.

Regional leverage: Syria, Libya, South Caucasus

Turkey’s power projection in nearby theaters dovetails with European priorities:

• Syria: Turkish forces and allied units help police northern zones and deter fresh refugee surges. Stability there is a top European concern.

• Libya: A Turkish footprint influences a conflict with direct migration and energy implications for the EU’s southern frontier.

• South Caucasus: As the region grows into a vital East-West corridor, European capitals increasingly look to Ankara to press Azerbaijan–Armenia talks, positioning Turkey as a broker of outcomes that align with European transit and energy interests.

Tol frames these roles as evidence of a pragmatic moment: a transactional U.S., an aggressive Russia, and a volatile Middle East, with Turkey’s geography and arms sector making it central to European defense thinking.

The opposition and the democratic question

The piece cautions that Western bet-hedging carries risks. Pro-democracy constituencies in Turkey have not abandoned the streets, and persistent civic resistance limits how fully any leader can consolidate power. Treating democracy as optional may produce short-term stability while incurring long-term costs—alienating a future Turkish electorate that Western capitals ultimately need to engage.

From municipal elections in 2019, which humbled the ruling party in major cities, to today’s mobilizations after opposition detentions, the domestic contest remains fluid. Tol’s argument: Western cover complicates that struggle, but it does not end it—and the durability of any strategic partnership with Ankara will eventually rest on how Turkey resolves its internal legitimacy question.

Why Erdoğan remains pivotal to Western capitals

1) Migration management. Turkey hosts millions of refugees. Cooperation with Ankara remains critical to avoid another 2015-style surge, ensuring domestic political stability in EU states.

2) Defense-industrial capacity. Turkish drones, munitions, and platforms fill capability gaps at competitive costs. As Europe races to rebuild stockpiles, Turkish industry provides speed and scale.

3) NATO geography. Turkey anchors the Alliance’s southeastern flank, controls access to the Black Sea via the Montreux regime, and sits astride energy and transport routes that Europe increasingly relies on.

4) Mediation bandwidth. Ankara’s open lines to Moscow and Kyiv—and influence in the South Caucasus—make it useful to Western policymakers seeking outcomes that reduce escalation risk.

Realpolitik vs. principles: the policy dilemma

For Washington, London, Berlin, and Brussels, the short-term calculus has leaned toward realpolitik—bolstering deterrence against Russia and finding partners that can deliver. The risk, Tol argues, is strategic myopia: weakening pro-democracy partners inside Turkey now could complicate relations later if political turnover arrives.

Western leaders face three interlocking choices:

• How far to go on defense trade (fighters, propulsion, avionics, joint production) without incentivizing further backsliding.

• How to calibrate criticism and conditionality on rule of law, media freedom, and opposition rights—especially around high-profile cases like İmamoğlu.

• How to balance migration deals so they do not become bargaining chips that eclipse fundamental rights.

Bottom line

The column’s thesis is stark: Erdoğan’s utility has never been greater—and that fact is not lost on Western leaders seeking stability in a dangerous neighborhood. But treating Turkey’s democracy as a luxury could prove costly. As long as Turkish citizens keep contesting power through protests, elections, and civic action, consolidation will be incomplete—and Western capitals that have “staked so much” on Erdoğan will remain exposed to the uncertainties of Turkey’s unresolved domestic struggle.

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