Can İlker: From Rare-Earths to Gold Reserves — Who Really Holds the Levers of Power in the Global Struggle?

In his latest analysis, Turkish economist and strategist Can Ilker takes a deep dive into the re-ordering of global power structures — one where rare-earth minerals, gold reserves and the dollar system itself are emerging as the real strategic cards.

The New Front Lines: Rare Earths, Gold, and Monetary Reset

At a time when public rhetoric often centers on trade tariffs or defence alliances, Ilker argues the more decisive struggle lies beneath the surface — in strategic natural resources and monetary frameworks.
The control of rare-earth elements and gold is now shaping a new global order: nations that dominate production or reserves gain not just economic leverage, but geostrategic influence. Meanwhile, the traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar and confidence in the current monetary system is coming under pressure.

China’s Rare-Earth Monopoly and ASEAN’s Potential

China has long held a near-monopoly on rare earth production, giving it a significant geo-economic advantage. Ilker points out that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region — especially Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia — has rich rare-earth potential but lacks effective collective strategy.
This fragmentation mirrors the early days of oil cartel formation: the resources exist, but coordination does not. As Ilker writes, the situation echoes the 1970s era of the OPEC — potential weaponised commodity power without unified execution.

Gold Reserves and the Fading Dollar Advantage

Beyond rare earths, gold is coming back into the spotlight. Central banks in Japan, for example, have signalled the accumulation of physical gold as a hedge against weakening trust in the dollar-based system. Ilker suggests we are witnessing a reverse of the post-1971 Bretton-Woods era: instead of gold giving way to fiat currencies, sovereigns are again rediscovering gold’s strategic value.

This shift is a clear signal that the dollar system’s dominance is being challenged, which has implications far beyond economics — touching on global power, currency diplomacy and monetary sovereignty.

Major Players vs. Supporting Actors

In Ilker’s framework, real leverage lies with states like the U.S. and China — who possess both the resources and the systemic influence — while actors such as ASEAN countries, Argentina or Turkey can only gain from aligning with larger blocs or becoming suppliers to those big powers.
For instance, Javier Milei’s Argentina and the U.S. support narrative is a case in point: external underwriting can channel resources or political leverage, but without structural control it remains precarious.

Three Unsustainable Trends to Watch

Ilker outlines three major trends he believes cannot endure long-term:

1. China’s attempt to maintain a total rare-earth monopoly while ASEAN remains uncoordinated.

2. Central banks’ expansive monetary policies at a time when inflation control is failing.

3. The U.S.’s strategy of bilateral deals to reshape global trade, which may erode its broader influence over time.

These are not isolated issues, he warns — they are interlinked components of a systemic shift.

What Comes Next?

For Ilker, the key trigger points to watch include:

• A crisis around the Taiwan Strait which could force shifts in rare-earth supply chains.

• A misstep by the Federal Reserve in monetary policy that could undermine dollar confidence.

• A supply-chain shock around rare earths disrupting tech industries globally.

The big question isn’t just who wins the next trade war, but who controls the resource, currency and strategic-industrial levers of the global system.

Keywords: rare-earth elements, gold reserves, global power, dollar system, ASEAN, China, United States, Can İlker, monetary reset, supply chain

Meta Description: Economist Can İlker argues that the true battleground of global power lies in rare-earths, gold and monetary influence — not just trade wars. Major players such as China and the U.S. hold the real levers, while others must align accordingly.