TURKEY Market Preview

As Turkey marks Republic Day, Borsa Istanbul will operate for a half day today and remain closed tomorrow. Trading volumes and volatility are expected to remain subdued, while global developments are likely to guide investor sentiment.

Erdoğan and Starmer Seal Eurofighter Deal

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have signed a defense cooperation agreement for the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet program.
Under the deal, Turkey will acquire 20 aircraft from the UK, while Qatar and Oman are expected to purchase 12 each. Starmer said the agreement would boost economic growth in both countries and create 20,000 new jobs in the UK.

Trump and Takaichi Sign Critical Minerals Pact

U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a framework agreement to secure the supply of critical minerals and rare earth elements through enhanced mining and processing cooperation.
During their meeting in Tokyo, Trump congratulated Takaichi on her new post, saying, “You’re going to do a tremendous job, and we’ll have a great relationship.”

Five Candidates on the Table for Next Fed Chair

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that five potential candidates are being evaluated to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires next year. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Bessent noted that discussions were still ongoing and that a decision would be made “in due time.”

AMD and U.S. Energy Department Announce $1 Billion Supercomputer Deal

The U.S. Department of Energy and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced a $1 billion collaboration to develop two next-generation supercomputers, aimed at strengthening America’s computing and AI capabilities.

Federal Workers Union Urges End to Government Shutdown

The American Federation of Government Employees, representing hundreds of thousands of federal workers, has called for an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown triggered by budget disputes in Congress.

Fatih Birol: Oil Price Impact from Sanctions Will Be Limited

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said sanctions against oil-exporting nations could lift crude prices but noted that ample spare capacity would limit the effect on global markets.

Morgan Stanley: Fed Likely to Cut Rates Again

Ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting, Morgan Stanley expects the central bank to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.

Japan’s Weak Yen Seen as Both Risk and Opportunity

Japan’s new Economic Revitalization Minister Minoru Kiuchi said the weak yen benefits exporters but acknowledged that the resulting higher living costs must be addressed through swift fiscal measures.
According to Yomiuri Shimbun, most Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers believe the economic impact of U.S. tariffs warrants close scrutiny. Markets broadly expect the BOJ to keep rates unchanged in its two-day meeting starting Wednesday.

South Korea’s Economy Accelerates in Q3

Preliminary data from the Bank of Korea showed the economy grew 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the July–September period, up from 0.7% in the previous quarter, signaling renewed momentum in domestic demand and exports.

ASEAN and China Update Free Trade Agreement

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China signed an updated version of their free trade agreement, expanding cooperation to include the digital economy, green energy, and advanced manufacturing. ASEAN remains China’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling $771 billion in 2024.

UK Watchdog to Revise Growth Outlook; Retail Prices Ease

According to the Financial Times, the UK’s fiscal watchdog plans to lower its productivity growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points ahead of next month’s budget announcement.
Meanwhile, data from the British Retail Consortium showed that store prices fell 0.3% in October, marking the first monthly decline since March and offering some relief to households struggling with the cost of living.

OPEC+ Signals Modest Production Increase

Sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions told Reuters that the group is leaning toward a modest production increase in December, as members aim to regain market share through gradual supply adjustments.

Market Overview: Borsa Istanbul

Başkent Investment Analysis

The BIST 100 Index traded between 10,823 and 10,948, closing at 10,853, near session lows. While the index remains above its 10-day (10,658), 50-day (10,747), and 200-day (10,257) moving averages, indicators show balanced but cautious momentum.
The RSI rose to 53.4, signaling mild bullishness, while the MACD indicator improved, suggesting waning selling pressure. However, trading volume fell to ₺123.9 billion, below the two-week average, indicating limited participation.

Yapı Kredi Investment View

Analysts see 10,750 points as the first key support level for the BIST 100. Holding above this threshold would maintain the uptrend, with potential targets at 11,158 and 11,500–11,600.
Conversely, a drop below 10,750 could signal renewed weakness, exposing the index to further downside toward 10,500 and 10,100.