Turkish white goods sector flash warning: domestic sales plunge

TÜRKBESD Data Shows Sharp Contraction as Local Demand Falters

Overview: 8% Annual Decline Signals Sector Strain

The Turkish white goods sector faced a challenging September, as data from the Turkish White Goods Industrialists’ Association (TÜRKBESD) indicates a significant contraction. Total sales across the six main product groups (refrigerators, washing machines, ovens, freezers, and dryers) fell 8% year-on-year in September to 2.7 million units. Production volume also declined by 6% compared to the previous year.

For the first nine months of the year (9M25), the sector experienced a 4% decrease in domestic sales and a 3% decrease in export volume, pointing to a broader trend of market narrowing both at home and abroad.

Domestic Plunge vs. Export Resilience

A closer look at the September figures reveals a stark divergence between local and foreign demand:

• Domestic Sales: Local sales volume saw a sharp drop of 12%, falling to 1.8 million units. This pronounced decline underscores the severe pressure on consumer purchasing power in the Turkish market.
• Export Volume: Exports provided a crucial counterweight, increasing by 12% year-on-year to 823,000 units. This growth in export activity helped mitigate the overall sales decline.

Note: TÜRKBESD data reflects shipments from manufacturers to dealers and may not perfectly correlate with final retail sales.

In terms of imports, only dishwashers and oven products saw an increase in volume in September, while other groups pulled the total import volume lower. Over the 9M25 period, total import volume accounted for just 3% of total shipments, indicating a relatively low reliance on foreign-sourced appliances.

Analyst Viewpoint: Arçelik and Vestel Stock Assessment

By Yapi Kredi Invest analysts: The newly released TÜRKBESD data is being assessed by analysts regarding its implications for major sector players, primarily Arçelik (ARCLK) and Vestel (VESTL).

Impact on ARCLK and VESTL:

Analysts suggest that while previous optimistic projections for ARCLK were partially supported by its better positioning in international markets, the September figures are complicated by Vestel’s 2025 deleveraging and downsizing strategy. This strategy makes year-on-year comparisons for Vestel’s performance look particularly challenging.

The ARCLK 3Q25 financial results, which were recently published, are considered by analysts to be supported by strong figures that offset the domestic market contraction. On the export front, however, competition with Chinese rivals in key European markets continues to intensify.

ARCLK Stock Expectation:

Analysts do not expect the September TÜRKBESD data to significantly impact the stock performance of ARCLK, given that the company has already released its 3Q25 financials. The target price for Arçelik remains at 186 TL with a “Hold” (TUT) recommendation, though this is currently under review due to an analyst coverage change.