TURKEY: Morning Report

Markets Eye CHP Court Case, U.S. Inflation Data and Scope Ratings Update

Investors are starting Friday focused on two key domestic developments — the CHP’s party congress lawsuit and Scope Ratings’ Turkey credit update — alongside a heavy international data calendar led by U.S. inflation figures. Despite the Central Bank’s 100 basis-point rate cut, the lira and equities have held relatively steady, with Borsa Istanbul closing at its highest level since early October.

Today’s Key Data: Domestic and Global

Domestic Calendar:

• 10:00 — TurkStat: Financial Services Confidence / Crop Production Forecast (2nd Estimate, 2025)

• 00:00 — Scope Ratings: Turkey Credit Rating Update

• 10:00 — CHP Congress Lawsuit (Ankara Court)

Global Calendar:

• 09:45 — France: Consumer Confidence

• 10:00 — Spain: PPI / Unemployment Rate

• 10:30 — Germany: PMI

• 11:00 — Eurozone: PMI

• 11:30 — UK: PMI

• 15:30 — U.S.: CPI (September)

• 16:45 — U.S.: PMI

• 17:00 — U.S.: University of Michigan Sentiment / New Home Sales

Global Markets: Trump Cancels Putin Meeting, Focus Shifts to Xi

Global sentiment remains cautious following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel his planned meeting with Vladimir Putin, saying “the timing is not appropriate.” Trump will, however, meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to end its quantitative tightening program at its October 29 meeting and projects gold prices to average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev accused Trump of steering “onto a war path against Russia,” while Kuwait’s oil minister said the U.S. expects oil prices to rise as sanctions tighten.

Global crude steel output fell 1.6% y/y to 141.8 million tons in September, while Ukrainian President Zelenskiy reiterated readiness to negotiate “if Russia agrees to a ceasefire.”

In the U.S., political gridlock continues over the government shutdown; Democratic Senate leader Hakeem Jeffries said Trump is “blocking Republicans from negotiating,” dimming hopes for a budget deal.

Turkey: Central Bank Rate Cut, Market Seeks Direction

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%, in line with expectations.
The accompanying statement noted a “visible slowdown in disinflation momentum” and cited rising risks from food and service prices.

Despite the move, the lira remained stable, with analysts pointing to the continuation of the positive real rate policy as a key stabilizing factor.

The Consumer Confidence Index slipped slightly to 83.6 in October from 83.9 in September.
Meanwhile, Borsa Istanbul’s benchmark BIST 100 gained 0.54% to close at 10,608 points, its strongest finish since October 10, on TL 152.9 billion turnover, the highest since early October.

Foreign Investor Flows and Reserves

CBRT data for the week ending October 17 show:

• Foreign investors sold $178 million in equities,

• Bought $151 million in government bonds.

Total gross reserves rose to $198.4 billion, while net international reserves increased slightly to $79.6 billion.
However, excluding swaps, net reserves reportedly fell by $7.4 billion, indicating underlying pressure on the balance sheet.

Broker Commentary: Ünlü & Co, A1 Capital, Yapı Kredi Invest

Ünlü & Co: TL Supported, BIST Could See Relief Rally

Ünlü & Co notes that the CBRT’s decision was fully priced in, with the lira showing minimal reaction.
The continuation of a tight policy stance despite the rate cut supports TL stability.

The firm highlights that today’s CHP congress court case has created short-term political uncertainty weighing on Borsa Istanbul.
A postponement or delay in the ruling could trigger a short-term relief rally.

Globally, investors are awaiting the U.S. CPI print, seen as the most critical input before the Fed’s October 29 meeting.

A1 Capital: Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

Borsa Istanbul closed Thursday at 10,608 points, maintaining momentum above key support at 10,500.
Analysts expect continued recovery as long as this level holds.

• Resistance levels: 10,670 – 10,730 – 10,785

• Support levels: 10,555 – 10,500 – 10,440

A break above 10,735 could extend gains toward 10,900, while dips below 10,500 may trigger short-term profit-taking.

Yapı Kredi Invest: 11,000 as Key Stop-Loss Zone

Yapı Kredi notes that equity index futures rose 0.53% to 11,667.
After a 17% correction earlier this month, the 11,000 region has emerged as critical trend support.

A sustained move above 11,800 could set a target of 12,000–12,200, while a drop below 11,000 could act as a stop-loss threshold for leveraged long positions.

Corporate News: Active M&A and Strategic Partnerships

• Aselsan signed a joint venture agreement with Oman-based Sinan Advanced Industries, strengthening its international defense partnerships.

• TSKB signed a €300 million climate adaptation loan with the World Bank, partially guaranteed by Turkey’s Treasury.

• Enka İnşaat acquired London’s Park House office building for £186 million via its UK subsidiary.

• Pegasus Airlines will report Q3 earnings on November 7.

• TAV Airports guided €220–240 million in 2025 capex.

• Mia Teknoloji’s subsidiary Tripy Mobility signed a confidentiality agreement with PTT Information Technologies.

• Loras GYO and Aydın Yatırım Group inked a construction-for-land deal in Aydın province.

Market Outlook: Dual Risk Drivers — Politics and Inflation

Friday brings a dual focus for investors:

• Domestically, the CHP congress court ruling,

• Globally, the U.S. CPI report, which could reshape Fed expectations.

Analysts say easing political uncertainty could spark a short-term rally in Turkish equities, while an upside surprise in U.S. inflation may weigh on EM assets.

Most brokerages agree that holding above 10,500 remains key for maintaining the positive technical outlook on the BIST 100.