Survey Reveals Rising Distrust in Türkiye’s Economic Management

A new public opinion survey delivered to the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has shed light on growing skepticism toward Türkiye’s economic management and divergent public perceptions of the causes behind persistent inflation. Conducted in October 2025, the poll revealed that 21.1% of respondents blame “insufficient production” as the main driver of inflation, while 41.9% believe interest rate cuts are fueling price increases. At the same time, public confidence in economic governance has fallen sharply, with nearly four in ten respondents expressing distrust toward policymakers.

Interest Rate Policy Divides Public Opinion

According to the report cited by Ekonomim, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) continues to justify interest rate cuts as a means to support investment and production. However, public sentiment remains highly polarized on the issue.

A significant 41.9% of participants stated that lowering interest rates increases inflation, reflecting a deepening concern that cheaper borrowing costs weaken the Turkish lira and elevate consumer prices. Among respondents aged 35 to 44, this view was even more pronounced, with 52.3% agreeing that rate cuts directly trigger inflation.

On the other side of the spectrum, 41.6% disagreed, maintaining that interest rate reductions do not necessarily drive inflation. This near-even split highlights a profound division in public trust toward monetary policy, mirroring the broader tension between official government narratives and everyday economic realities faced by citizens.

Structural Weaknesses Take the Blame

When asked about the underlying reasons for Türkiye’s high inflation, respondents pointed primarily to structural and production-related deficiencies rather than government mismanagement or global shocks.

The breakdown is telling:

• Insufficient Production: 21.1%

• Poor Governance: 10.1%

• Global Conflicts and Wars: 9.1%

Interestingly, only 4.7% of participants attributed inflation directly to “AK Party or government failure,” suggesting that while economic frustration is widespread, most citizens perceive the issue as systemic rather than political. Nonetheless, the data underline a growing acknowledgment of domestic productivity bottlenecks, a factor that economists have long identified as a constraint on Türkiye’s long-term price stability.

Confidence in Economic Management Falls Sharply

Perhaps the most alarming finding in the report concerns public trust in Türkiye’s economic leadership. The survey found that the average confidence score in the country’s economic management fell from 2.25 in August to 2.12 in September, marking a significant decline within just one month.

Even more striking is the shift in outright distrust: those who said, “I do not trust the economic management” rose from 27.6% to 38.7%. This nearly 11-point increase signals a growing erosion of confidence among citizens grappling with rising living costs, currency volatility, and diminishing purchasing power.

Economists interpret these results as an indicator of “trust fatigue” — a phenomenon where repeated economic interventions fail to convince the public of their effectiveness. While officials have emphasized long-term structural reforms and supply-side measures, ordinary citizens appear unconvinced that policy adjustments will bring quick relief from inflation.

The Broader Picture: Inflation Fatigue and Policy Crossroads

The survey arrives at a time when Türkiye’s economic debate remains intensely polarized. Inflation continues to strain household budgets, with monthly consumer price increases pushing well above official targets. The government has argued that interest rate cuts and production incentives will ultimately lower prices by increasing output. Yet critics maintain that such policies have instead fueled a cycle of currency depreciation, import dependency, and cost-push inflation.

The data underscore a growing disconnect between policy messaging and public perception. While the government frames its strategy as a long-term vision for sustainable growth, the average citizen measures success through day-to-day affordability — and by that measure, frustration is mounting.