New polls show CHP widening lead, as Erdogan falls farther back

Summary:

Turkey’s main opposition CHP is extending its lead over the ruling AKP in a string of new national and local polls, positioning itself as a centrist force preparing for power after decades in opposition. Meanwhile, surveys suggest that President Erdoğan’s strategy of courting pro-Kurdish DEM Party voters has failed to deliver the expected support ahead of the next election cycle.

CHP emerges as the country’s dominant political force

Following its landmark victory in the March 2024 local elections, which ended nearly half a century of conservative dominance in municipal politics, the CHP is now polling between 34% and 41% according to more than 20 independent research firms.

At the party’s parliamentary retreat this month, CHP lawmakers discussed foreign policy, judicial pressure on opposition municipalities, and reports gathered from 81 provinces over the summer. Party strategists now speak openly of “governing scenarios” as data show growing public identification of the CHP as a centrist, solution-oriented party.

Polls also indicate that imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu remains the most popular national political figure, consistently leading President Erdoğan by double digits in direct matchups.

Erdoğan’s “DEM strategy” fails to sway Kurdish voters

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli had hoped their outreach to the pro-Kurdish DEM Party — including symbolic gestures in parliament and references to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan — would soften relations and secure a share of Kurdish votes.

However, a September 2025 BUPAR poll found that 70% of DEM voters would refuse to support the ruling People’s Alliance, even if Öcalan explicitly endorsed it.

The survey of 2,512 respondents across 26 provinces, with a 3.6% margin of error, also showed that 71% oppose a constitutional amendment allowing Erdoğan to run for a third term — including one-third of AKP voters and two-thirds of MHP voters.
Analysts say this reflects a “legitimacy crisis” within the ruling bloc’s own base.

GündemAr Poll: Erdoğan trails all opposition contenders

A separate GÜNDEMAR survey conducted between September 20–26, 2025 confirmed that the CHP maintains a clear national lead at 35.8%, while the AKP stands at 30.9%.
Other parties’ results were as follows: DEM Party 8.3%, MHP 6.4%, Victory Party 6.3%, İYİ Party 4.9%, New Welfare Party 2.8%, others 2.0%, Key Party 1.5%, and Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) 0.9%.

When undecided and protest votes were distributed, all potential opposition candidates outperformed Erdoğan in head-to-head presidential matchups:

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 55.6%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 44.4%
  → Margin: +11.2 points

• Mansur Yavaş: 58.1%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 41.9%
  → Margin: +16.2 points

• Özgür Özel: 52.3%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 47.7%
  → Margin: +4.6 points

These results reinforce a pattern seen since early summer: Erdoğan trails not only İmamoğlu but also CHP leader Özgür Özel and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş in all simulated second-round contests.

Big-city dynamics: CHP leads in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir

An October 1–3 ORC Research poll in Turkey’s three largest cities showed the CHP maintaining its lead:

• Istanbul: CHP 34.6%, AKP 31.7%

• Ankara: CHP 32.9%, AKP 31.4%

• Izmir: CHP 41.9%, AKP 22.4%

Analysts say these figures signal continued urban discontent with the government, even as Erdoğan seeks to rebuild ties with Kurdish voters and moderate conservatives.

A political realignment in motion

The string of polling data underscores a deeper shift in Turkey’s political balance.
The CHP, long confined to opposition politics, is increasingly seen as a credible governing alternative, while the AKP faces growing challenges in mobilizing its traditional voter base.

With judicial cases against opposition mayors, ongoing economic strain, and stalled constitutional reform debates, Turkey’s political scene is entering a volatile pre-election phase that may determine the shape of the country’s next leadership transition.