Former Erdoğan Ally Warns: “Bahçeli Could Call for Snap Elections at Any Moment”

Summary:
Hüseyin Kocabıyık, a former AK Party lawmaker expelled from the party after criticizing President Erdoğan, has warned that MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli could “break the alliance and call for early elections at any time.” In a wide-ranging interview, Kocabıyık also tied Erdoğan’s potential candidacy in the next election to Ekrem İmamoğlu’s release, claiming Turkey’s political legitimacy depends on it.

“MHP Is the Party Keeping the AKP in Power”

Former İzmir deputy Hüseyin Kocabıyık, once a close political ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said the ruling AKP’s continued hold on power is largely thanks to its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

“MHP is the party that allows the AKP to remain in power today,” Kocabıyık told Cumhuriyet. “It’s very clear — MHP influences AKP policy on many key issues.”

Kocabıyık was expelled from the AK Party in 2023 after declaring that Erdoğan had “staged a coup against himself” following the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a move widely condemned at home and abroad.

“Bahçeli Could Break the Alliance Overnight”

Commenting on MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s long history of sudden political reversals, Kocabıyık warned that Erdoğan’s nationalist ally could once again surprise the nation.

“Bahçeli says today that Erdoğan must stay in office — but nothing is ever certain with him,” Kocabıyık said. “Tomorrow morning he could break the alliance and send Turkey to early elections.”

He added that such sudden maneuvers have become so frequent in Turkish politics that they now deserve their own label: “Bahçeli Surprises.”

“A Snap Election Call Could Come at Any Moment”

Kocabıyık predicted that Bahçeli could soon push for early elections if serious disagreements emerge between the MHP and the government.

“He could easily say, ‘Turkey must renew itself, the national will must be refreshed,’” he said. “There’s no doubt in my mind. Just look at his political record — it speaks for itself.”

Erdoğan’s Candidacy ‘Depends on İmamoğlu’s Release’

Turning to Turkey’s next presidential race, Kocabıyık said he believes Erdoğan’s future candidacy depends entirely on Ekrem İmamoğlu’s release from prison.

“Erdoğan’s candidacy has one condition — and that is İmamoğlu,” Kocabıyık said. “If İmamoğlu remains in prison, Erdoğan cannot run. The two are connected. Any election held while a major opposition leader is behind bars would lack legitimacy.”

He added that, in his view, allegations of corruption against İmamoğlu have no public credibility and that keeping him jailed would delegitimize the democratic process.

“If İmamoğlu is released, some of the constitutional problems surrounding Erdoğan’s candidacy might be overcome,” he added.

“Erdoğan Won’t Gamble on Losing”

Kocabıyık dismissed speculation about Erdoğan’s succession plans involving names like Hakan Fidan, Bilal Erdoğan, or Selçuk Bayraktar, saying Erdoğan is too pragmatic to risk losing an election.

“No other leader in the world uses polling and data analysis as effectively as Erdoğan,” he said. “He would commission 50 surveys if needed to determine who can win. If he cannot legally run, he’ll choose the person most likely to secure victory — Erdoğan doesn’t play to lose.”

“The AKP Is Strengthening the CHP”

Kocabıyık also criticized the AKP’s recent political tactics, arguing that Erdoğan’s strategy has unintentionally strengthened the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).

“Every move the AKP makes ends up helping the CHP,” he said. “Even the AKP’s own polls show the CHP leading by four points. For the first time in decades, the CHP is united and growing stronger — yet the government’s actions defy political logic.”

Drawing parallels to Erdoğan’s own imprisonment in the late 1990s, Kocabıyık said history may be repeating itself.

“When Erdoğan was in Pınarhisar Prison, it was already clear he would become prime minister one day. Now the same film is being replayed — but Erdoğan has become the man he once opposed.”

The “Legitimacy Photo” Controversy

Kocabıyık also commented on the recent photo of Erdoğan with opposition leaders in Parliament, which some viewed as a gesture to restore political legitimacy amid criticism from Washington.

“People overreacted,” he said. “After U.S. Ambassador Barrack’s remarks about legitimacy, Erdoğan needed such a photo — it was clearly used for that purpose. But to claim that the opposition has softened toward Erdoğan is nonsense.”

He argued that the controversy over such a “normal” image reflected the deeper crisis of trust in Turkish politics.

“Half the people in that photo were labeled ‘traitors’ or ‘terrorists’ by Erdoğan not long ago,” Kocabıyık said. “That’s why such an ordinary moment sparked so much debate — it shows how far politics has strayed from normality.”