Gedik Investment: Light Vehicle Market grew by 26% YoY in Sep25

Following a loss of momentum in prior months, Sep25 marked the strongest September on record… According to the Automotive Distributors’ & Mobility Association (ODMD), while Passenger Car (PC) sales increased 27% YoY to 88.3k units (Aug25: 82.2k); Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales rose 22% YoY to 22.0k units (Aug25: 19.4k), respectively. As a result, Light Vehicle (LV: PC+LCV) sales grew 26% YoY to 110.3k units (Aug25: 101.7k).

On a MoM basis, September volumes also recorded a solid 9% rebound (PC: +7%, LCV: +13%), recovering from two consecutive months of contraction (Jul25: -9% MoM, Aug25: -6% MoM) that had been driven primarily by pricing uncertainties linked to the SCT rate revisions.

In terms of brand performance, Renault retained market leadership as the best-selling brand in September and continued to rank first on a cumulative 9M25 basis, followed by Fiat, Ford, VW, Toyota, Peugeot, Opel, Hyundai, Citroën, and BYD.

Market Highlights: (9M25)

►The share of electric passenger cars rose to 18.0% in 9M25 (vs. 9.0% in 9M24; 8M25: 18.5; FY24: 10.7%), while hybrid passenger cars also saw a sharp increase in market share to 26.7% (vs. 16.3% in 9M24; 8M25: 26.3%; FY24: 18.8%). The accelerating adoption of electrified vehicles highlights a structural shift in consumer preferences and suggests growing acceptance of alternative powertrains across a broader customer base. However, we believe the recent hike in their minimum SCT rates from 10% to 25% may temper the near-term pace of this transition. Notably, EV penetration edged down by 0.5pps from 8M25 to 9M25, signaling a potential cooling effect.

►SUVs continued to dominate retail sales, accounting for 62.7% of total sales (9M24: 55.9%; 2024: 56.8%).

►Segment B (entry) share declined to 25.8% in 9M25 from 30.6% as of 9M24. Meanwhile, the share of segment C increased to 13.7% (9M24: 9.8%). Notably, segment D’s share moderated from its peak of 15.9% as of 5M25, indicating some degree of normalization.

►TOGG’s retail sales volume is only up by 3% YoY to 2.3k units in Sep25 (Aug25: 1.2k units / +84% MoM; low base), bringing 9M25 sales to 23.3k units (+37% YoY). TOGG is still struggling to build strong sales momentum, and we continue to believe that recent price hikes due to updated SCT rates and price thresholds may further weigh on performance in the coming months.

► BYD’s retail sales lost some momentum, with 2.5k units sold in Sep25 (-4% MoM). While still ranking 7th in the passenger car segment (total: 10th) as of 9M25, the Company dropped to 14th in September alone, highlighting struggles to defend its position following recent price hikes.

Dogus Otomotiv’s (DOAS TI, Outperform, TL250.78/share) retail sales volume (including Skoda via equity pickup) improved by 43% YoY (+59% exc. Skoda) and 24% MoM (+26% exc. Skoda). Passenger car (PC) sales grew by 42% YoY (+21% MoM) to 14.3k units, while light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales rose by 49% YoY (+43% MoM) to 2.2k units. Volkswagen (VW) branded PC sales grew by 48% YoY (+15% MoM) to 6.5k units. (Positive)

Ford Otosan’s (FROTO TI, Marketperform, TL118.32/share) retail sales volume up by 9% YoY (+15% MoM), mainly due to high base of LCV sales. While passenger car (PC) sales soared by 53% YoY (+16% MoM) to 2.0k units, light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales declined by 1% YoY (+15% MoM) to 6.0k units. (Neutral)

Tofas’ (TOASO TI, Marketperform, TL270.98/share) FCA retail sales volume (excl. PSA brands) rose by 41% YoY (+15% MoM) to 11.3k units, marking the first meaningful rebound in FCA brand sales this year. PSA brands also maintained robust momentum, with retail volumes up 40% YoY (+13% MoM). On a combined basis (FCA+PSA, fully consolidated into financials since 2Q), passenger car sales advanced 41% YoY (+1% MoM), while light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales grew 37% YoY (+13% MoM). Accordingly, Tofaş’s total sales volumes increased 40% YoY (+13% MoM) to 30.2k units.