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Why Did Turkey’s Human Capital Index Fall Below EU Levels?

Turkish economy

Turkey’s Human Capital Index (HCI) fell in 2023, according to new data from TÜİK, driven mainly by a decline in education. The index, prepared using the World Bank’s methodology, measures the future productivity of a child born today under the country’s health and education conditions.

National Decline

  • Turkey’s HCI dropped to 0.690 in 2023, down from 0.696 in 2022.

  • The index was 0.693 in 2021, showing a steady downward trend.

  • The fall was largely due to the education component, which slid by 0.8% to 0.725.

  • Survival fell slightly (0.985, -0.3%), while health rose marginally (0.966, +0.2%).

Turkey vs. EU

  • The EU average HCI (2020) was 0.730, placing Turkey below the bloc.

  • Top EU performers: Finland (0.796), Sweden (0.795), Ireland (0.793).

  • Lowest EU scores: Romania (0.584), Bulgaria (0.614), Slovakia (0.665).

Regional Differences

  • Highest province: Çanakkale (0.781), followed by Antalya, Erzincan, Eskişehir, and Rize.

  • Lowest province: Şırnak (0.599), followed by Ağrı, Şanlıurfa, Gümüşhane, and Muş.

Earthquake Impact

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes hit human capital hardest in affected provinces:

  • Hatay: -0.066 points

  • Adıyaman: -0.059 points

  • Kahramanmaraş: -0.048 points

Other declines were seen in Manisa (-0.024) and Malatya (-0.022).

By contrast, Çanakkale (+0.026), Uşak, Siirt, Antalya, and Erzincan saw the largest improvements.

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